Dow Hits All-Time High, Interest Rates Coming Down Next Year, Rents Are Falling - The Good Economic News Just Keeps Coming

Watch my year end review - "2023 Was A Very Good Year for Democrats. Let's Make 2024 Even Better"

Friends, we’ve had a lot of really good economic news of late. I review some of it below. Things were hard in America and around the world, but things are better now, much better now. We are getting to the other side of our challenges, together. While we still have a lot of work to do, the country has made true and meaningful progress this year. It is so great to see.

Year End Hopium Wrap-Up, Vanity Fair Podcast - Last night the broad Hopium community gathered for our last political discussion of the year. It was a great group! Thanks to all those who joined us. I called my opening remarks “2023 Was A Very Good Year for Democrats. Let’s Make 2024 Even Better.” You can watch it here. I also want to share a new and comprehensive podcast I recorded yesterday with Brian Stelter of Vanity Fair, A Dem Strategist Calls B******t On Biden Polling Doom. It was a terrific discussion, full of Hopium, one of the most interesting I’ve ever done. Lots of good stuff in both to check out over the holidays.

Polling, Electoral Data - There have been 8 polls conducted since Thanksgiving which have Biden tied or ahead, and a new Reuters poll has him leading in the 2024 battleground states by 4 points. I know there are polls showing him down, but on aggregate what we are seeing is a close, competitive race at this point. As I write in these posts below, and discuss in my year end briefing and in the Vanity Fair podcast, I am deeply optimistic about 2024, and would, in every way possible, much rather be us than them.

• Why I Am Optimistic About 2024

• Dems Keep Outperforming Expectations

• Trump’s Historic Venality

Our 2024 Campaigns So Far - Please Volunteer, Donate, Promote!

• Tom Suozzi NY-3 (Feb 13th)

• Tom Keen FL HD-35 (Jan 16th)

• North Carolina Democratic Party (Ongoing)

• Background On How We Are Approaching 2024

Dow Hits A New All Time High, Interest Rates Are Coming Down - The American Economy Is Remarkably Strong - The steady stream of good news continued yesterday as we learned rents across the US have started to decline, interest rates are coming next year and the Dow topped 37,000 for the first time, notching an all-time record high. So, to recap, here is what we know:

• GDP growth was 5.2% last quarter, and 3+% for the Biden Presidency. Trump averaged 1% GDP growth each year of his Presidency

• The US has had the strongest COVID recovery of any country in the G7 (advanced economies)

• The Dow hit an all time high yesterday, breaking 37,000 for the first time. 2023 is going to be a very good year for all US stock market indices - the country is much wealther this year than last

• Under Biden 14.1m jobs have been created, 7 times the number of jobs created under the last 3 GOP Presidents *combined*. The job market is the best here in the US in almost 60 years, and under Biden we’ve seen the lowest peacetime unemployment rate since WWII. The number of job openings per unemployed persons have hit record highs in recent years. Unending amounts of good news here.

• Inflation was zero in October and grew just 0.1% in November. Groceries have only increased 1.7% in the last twelve months which is less than an average year. Rents have started to come down, gas and energy prices are way down. Because inflation is now running close to where the Fed wants it to be it, the Fed announced yesterday that it expects to cut interest rates next year - incredibly important news.

• Under Biden America has seen the lowest uninsured rate in our history, and we continue to witness historically elevated wage gains, prime-age worker participation rates and new business formation, a clear sign of the vitality of the US economy today. The gains in Hispanic and Black new business formation has been particularly notable.

• US oil and renewable production will each break records this year, making the US more energy independent then it has been in decades

• The wealth of Americans climbed by over $50,000 per household, 37%, from 2020 to 2022, and doubled for American 18-34 years old. Biden has forgiven more than $130b in student load debt, and as of May, home ownership for Gen Z was higher than Millennials and Gen X at this point in their lives. Remember that the minuman wage has risen in many states and cities in recent years, creating a much higher floor for all workers, something particularly important for younger people entering the work force for the first time. Again, this is the best job market for young workers since the 1960s.

• The annual deficit is trillions lower today than when Biden came into office. Despite high interest rates, household debt remains historically low. Household debt is an area Republicans have begun to focus on, and not suprisingly, are using bad and misleading data. Here’s a graph from the St. Louis Fed:

• Biden’s ambitious investment agenda will create growth, American innovation, opportunities for American workers for decades to come, and is already dramatically accelerating our energy transition from carbon-based fuels. 30 or 40 years from now what Joe Biden may be most remembered for is his history altering efforts to counter climate change and decarbonize the world

In my recent post, December Jobs Report Another Good One, you can find even more data and graphs. In my post, The Economy Is Remarkably Strong. Period. Stop The Bullshit, I go into depth about why I think the Americans are not nearly as down on the economy as conventional wisdom. holds Remember, if folks were down, and there was so was much economic discontent, why do we keep winning elections across the US?

And finally, this graph, and a reminder, that since 1989 and a new age of globalization began, 50 millions jobs have been created in American. 48 million of those, 96%, were created under Democratic Presidents. Essentially all of them. There has been one which has repeatedly brought growth, lower deficits and American progress, and another which has brought recession, higher deficits and American decline:

Here at Hopium we celebrate the wins when they come, and friends, we have had an awful lot to celebrate in recent weeks. We need to be loud and proud about it all and share through our networks. Loud and proud people!

Proud to be in this important fight with all of you - Simon