Morning all. Here we are. The rancid reconciliation bill has passed the House and now heads to the Senate. As I discussed in my talk with Hopium paid subscribers last night (video and transcript above), we now have a big job ahead of us this summer - we must win the big economic debate with Trump and the Republicans that is now upon us.
Let’s start here:
The simple reality the Rs face now is that Trump’s terrible tariffs have weakened the economy to the point where something like the reconciliation bill with its huge explosion of debt just isn’t possible any more. Passing this bill given current economic conditions would be reckless and dangerous, which is why Moody’s and the markets - and folks like Ray Dalio and Jamie Dimon - are sounding the alarm.
It’s why here at Hopium we don’t talk about the tariffs or the reconciliation bill in isolation. It is what they will do together that has the markets so spooked; and why what we are fighting for here is both the killing of the reconciliation bill and the rolling back of the tariffs. They are, on their own, destructive economic policies. Together they are ruinous for America and the American people.
This is an actual headline from CNN’s site yesterday after the Treasury struggled to sell American bonds at a routine auction yesterday:
Here is some fresh reporting from CNN this morning. Note the use of the term “freak out” again:
The 20-year bond auction conducted by the US Treasury on Wednesday afternoon was unusually weak: Demand for the bonds was the lowest since February, according to the Treasury Department. Investors who bought the bonds sought a higher-than-expected yield — effectively saying they wanted to be paid more for taking on the risk of lending to Uncle Sam.
That sent a big warning to President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans. The poor demand means that investors who lend money to the United States think the Trump agenda — in particular, the “Big, Beautiful” tax cut bill — has made America an unacceptably risky investment. They are not going to keep funding the government’s coffers unless they get paid more for it.
Long-term Treasuries fell further Thursday; and yields, which trade in opposite direction to prices, continued to surge. The rate on the 10-year Treasury rose above 4.61%, and the 30-year eclipsed 5.14% — its highest level since October 2023.
The stock market has started to freak out a bit on the news. Dow futures fell 200 points, or 0.4%, Thursday after tumbling more than 800 points Wednesday. S&P 500 futures were down 0.4%, and Nasdaq futures were 0.3% lower. And Wall Street’s problems could soon be felt on Main Street.
The bond market is already on edge. Bond prices have been falling in recent weeks, and yields have been rising for several reasons. Recession fears have been somewhat allayed after the Trump administration lowered tariffs on China significantly last week. Yet inflation remains a big concern as companies reporting earnings in recent days, including behemoths like Walmart, said they’ll be forced to raise prices because of tariffs.
In addition to last night’s in depth discussion of Trump’s agenda of sabotage and betrayal I offer up these resources:
Slower Growth, Higher Prices, A Huge Tax Hike, Explosive Deficits, Credit Downgrades - my latest take on Trump’s ruinous economic agenda
My interview with Dr. Rob Shapiro, and his new Washington Monthly article, Trump’s Perfect Storm That Could Sink The American Economy
Great primers on why Trump’s economic agenda is so destructive from Rep. Tom Suozzi and Rep. Haley Stevens
It should be noted that Trump The Weak And Horribly Corrupt is hosting a dinner for the top buyers of his memecoin tonight that is expected to net him $400m. Along with the acceptance of the Qatari plane, which will need hundreds of millions of dollars of upgrades (yes paid for us by us), our leader netted a cool $1 billion for himself this week through illegally exploiting the Presidency.
As I’ve been saying the Trump “more for him, less for us” agenda is giving “Let Them Eat Cake” a run for its money.
I loved this clip of Rep. Jim McGovern that floated around the Internet last night:
As we learned yesterday that Trump’s bill will not only make deep cuts to Medicaid, but almost certainly Medicare too, it is becoming very clear that Democrats have a big opening to make Trump and Kennedy’s strategic assault on our health and well being a major issue in the coming months.
I will be talking about our big summer fight with the Brian Tyler Cohen today live at 455pm ET. It’s part of a great day of events put on by Field Team 6. You can learn more and register for the event here.
We will end the week on a more optimistic note tomorrow as our dear friend Anderson Clayton joins us live at 1215pm ET. We will be reviewing the strong showing NC Dems had in the 2024 election, celebrating Allison Riggs’ swearing in as a state Supreme Court justice and look ahead to 2026. You can join our discussion at 12:15pm by clicking on this link. Excited for this one!
I want to acknowledge the deadly shooting of two Israeli embassy staffers last night here in DC at the Capital Jewish Museum just blocks from the Capitol. I also want to acknowledge that our leader yesterday threw a torrent of the wildest, ugliest most White Supremacist bullshit possible at the President of South Africa. The racial animus driving the Trump regime will never not be shocking to me…..
Let’s Get To Work! - My rec on calls today - call your Republican Senators and Reps and tell them how outraged you are that this monstrosity, which is going to do so much harm to the country, has passed, and that you demand they vote against it either when it comes up in the Senate or in final passage.
If you have a Democratic House Member please call them and thank them for working so hard to kill this terrible bill. If you have a Democratic Senator, or two, please call them and demand they do everything they can to kill the Senate version. Here’s our working script. Use whatever works for you:
Here’s our working script. Use whatever works for you:
I am calling to urge you to vote against the reconciliation bill and to roll back Trump’s terrible and illegal tariffs. Together these actions have raised taxes on all of us and will explode the deficit - things Republicans have always told us they did not believe in.
But your agenda is also causing all of us to “pay more and get less” for every day things including our health care; people to loses their jobs; and the economy to slow - all so you can give your rich donors a huge tax break. Your plans will weaken this great country and are an extraordinary betrayal of everything you promised during the campaign - which was to help people like me, not Elon Musk, get ahead.
Your plans are ones of sabotage, surrender and betrayal and I urge you to abandon them and to work with Democrats to find a better way.
Please self-report on your actions today. I know folks have been working hard and these reports of our gritty fight helps lift all of us up every day.
Two more things you can do today to channel your outrage, anger and fear for what comes next for this once great nation:
1 - Help Abigail Spanberger Win Virginia - Simply, the Virginia elections are the most important elections we have this year, and we must win them. We have narrow majorities in both legislative chambers and while our candidate Abigail Spanberger has a modest lead in current polling, this is going to be a close election where our money and volunteer time can make a real difference. If you are to give to only one candidate or election this year it should be this one. Here’s a link to do so today……
To learn more about Abigail check out my new discussion with her, released yesterday. We have now raised over $106,000 towards our June 30th goal of $200,000 - thank you all. If you want to volunteer for her race head over to her campaign website today. We can do this people!
2 - Support The Hopium House 7 - We’ve begun our work to help flip the House next year by supporting and shoring up the 7 newly-elected battleground House Dems we helped elect last year. Catch our interviews with Reps Derek Tran, Janelle Bynum, Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen and give to all 7 through a single donation on our ActBlue page. Learn more about this important effort here.
We’ve already raised over $94,000 towards our $200,000 June 30th goal - can we get to $100,000 today?
Keep working hard all. As we discussed last night, we have two big jobs ahead of us this summer - win the big economic debate with Trump, and find time to have a summer too. Look forward to doing both with all of you - Simon
Share this post