Hopium In The NYTimes, 16 Polls Show Biden Leads, Do More Worry Less

Welcome New Subscribers!/Lots of Events Coming Up - Register Today!

Apr 04, 2024

Happy Thursday everyone. Got a few things for you today:

Hopium In The NYTimes - Why I Am So Optimistic About Winning This November - A few days ago I did a long interview with Adam Nagourney of the New York Times. It dropped in the digital version of the paper yesterday afternoon. I hope you will read it, let me know what you think and share it with others in your networks. It’s a fun read, and does a good job capturing the core arguments I make here at Hopium.

Some addition resources to help you go a bit deeper into why I am optimistic about winning this November:

Hopium Posts, Analyses, Op-Eds - 14 Polls With Biden Leads, Abortion Center Stage Now, It’s April. Joe Biden Is Still A Good President, And Trump Is Still The Ugliest Thing We’ve Ever Seen, The Country Is Better Off and The Democratic Party is Strong, There’s Only One Party Good At This Capitalism Thing, Moving On From The Trump Trials

Biden’s Chances Are Much Stronger Than People Realize (MSNBC), 4 Things Biden Should Do Now (New Republic).

The “Trump Is A Strong Candidate” Bubble Is Bursting, The GOP Is Splintering/MAGA Is A Failed Politics, The GOP Has Worse Than Nothin’

Video Presentations and Events

Audio Podcasts

Remember everyone:

Joe Biden is a good President. The country is better off. The Democratic Party is strong, unified and winning elections all across the country.
And they have Trump - the ugliest political thing any of us has ever seen.

16 Polls Have Biden Up/Other 2024 Election Notes - It’s been a very good week of polling for Joe Biden and the Dems. With Data for Progress coming in this morning at 47-46 for Biden, and Marquette University 52-48, there are now 16 polls taken since late February showing Biden ahead: (via 538):

52-48 Marquette (this week)
47-46 Data For Progress (this week)
50-48 NPR/Marist (this week)
42-40 Big Village (this week)
44-42 Morning Consult (this week)
48-45 Quinnipiac
44-43 Noble Predictive
44-43 Economist/YouGov (March 19)
47-45 FAU/Mainstreet
44-43 Morning Consult (March 11)
46-45 Public Policy Research
50-48 Ipsos/Reuters
45-44 Civiqs
47-44 Kaiser Family Foundation
51-49 Emerson
43-42 TIPP

Additionally, another measure we look at, the Congressional Generic, which asks the simple question of who you will be supporting for Congress this year, has turned much more blue in recent days (Economist/YouGov was 44-41 this week, not added to 538 yet):

In 2022 there were polls showing Republicans with an advantage (many paid for or conducted by GOP aligned organizations), and lots of other polls showing the election close and competitive. Many commentators choose to dismiss the polls more favorable to Dems, and focused on those more favorable to Rs. It is how so many fell for the red wave that that never came.

The responsible thing for commentators and analysts to do now, in 2024, is to point out that not all the data is pointing in the same direction; that there are polls favorable to the Rs (like the new WSJ polls) and there are all these other polls favorable to Biden and the Dems. Another responsible thing to do is to point out that in a week of very good polling for Biden and the Dems the one major poll showing good news for Rs - the low-sample size/high margin of error WSJ polls - was paid for by Rupert Murdoch and conducted by Trump’s own pollster; and thus centering one’s understanding about the 2024 election around data they provide is, um, not a reasonable thing to do. This is particularly true given Murdoch’s Fox News was found guilty in court of maliciously lying about the 2020 election.

My view is the election is becoming bluer, we are gaining ground. Trump is no longer ahead in the election or favored - saying so is outside the data in front of us. It has long been my view, and the view of the Biden campaign, that as we got deeper into the general election and our coalition started paying more attention, Biden would jump out to a modest lead. That appears to be what is happening now.

I also do not subscribe to the school of thought that the battleground leans more Republican than the popular vote. It may happen. But it didn’t happen in 2022, and the 2024 battleground knows and has repeatedly rejected MAGA. Post Dobbs MAGA had a disastrous showing in the battleground in 2022, and we just don’t know what is going to happen this year. I think Dobbs changed everything, and so comparisons to 2016 or 2020 are in my view very very risky.

We have a long way to to go in this election, much can and will change, and we have a lot of work to do. But this has been a very good week of polling for Dems, and here at Hopium we take the wins when they come.

Upcoming Events - Register Today! - Look forward to seeing folks at these upcoming events, and if you want to join our paid subscriber events and aren’t yet a paid subscriber you can sign up here.

Fri, April 5th, 1pm ET - Hopium Founding Member Discussion With Simon
Wed, April 10th, 7pm ET - Monthly Hopium Paid Subscriber Get Together - Register here
Thur, April 11th, 1pm ET - With Democrats, Things Get Better - updated and fresh - Register here
Tue, April 16th, 8pm ET - Monthly Hopium Community Wide Get Together w/Simon - Register here
Thur, April 18th Evening - Simon speaks in person at the Maricopa County Democratic Party 100th Anniversary Event (Phoenix) - Buy A Ticket Here
Sat, April 20th Evening - Simon speaks in person at the Arlington (VA) Democrats Blue Victory Dinner - Buy A Ticket Here

Let’s Do More, Worry Less - We are in the final push for these three must-win projects. Thanks to everyone who has helped out - we’ve blown past our original $100,000 goals for all three:

Donate To and Join The Biden-Harris Campaign - Job 1 this year is defeating Trump. As the general election has begun it’s time to get on board the Biden-Harris train. Please donate whatever amount you can - $5, $10 - to get started and become part of the big campaign of 2024.

So far the Hopium community has raised $198,000 from 2,300 of you for Biden Harris - thank you all!

Have you ordered your Biden-Harris lawn sign yet? You can do so here.

Make An Early Investment in North Carolina - North Carolina is our most important 2024 battleground expansion state. Please donate today!

For more on why I think North Carolina is so important watch my in-depth interview with Anderson Clayton, the dynamic new NC Dem Party chair; learn about the extremists running statewide in North Carolina this year and why they give us a great opportunity to grow, expand and flip NC blue; and hear Anderson give us an update on her work and the impact our investments are having on the ground.

So far we’ve raised $156,000 from over 2,025 of you for Anderson and the NC Dems - thank you all. You can also learn how to volunteer for the NC Dems from wherever you live here.

Look at what having Anderson there at the helm, with resources, means:

Help Ruben Gallego Win Arizona - Join me in helping Ruben Gallego in his campaign to become the next Senator from Arizona. The polls are encouraging there, and this is a very critical 2024 battleground state - must win Biden-Harris state, must win Senate, two House pick up opportunities (and maybe the state house too). Because Senator Sinema stayed in for so long, Ruben is a bit behind where he should be financially and organizationally, and needs our help today. Watch my recent interview with Ruben, and please donate today! We have already raised over $111,000 from over 1,700 of you - thank you all!

You can volunteer to help Ruben and the AZ Democrats here.

Spread Hopium - Encourage people in your networks to become a Hopium subscriber. We hit our two big March 31st goals - 50,000 overall subscribers and 6,000 paid! Thank you all for helping keep this community growing and the Hopium flowing!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon

Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg

Discussion about this post