Lots Of Hopium On The Bulwark Pod, Trump's 6 Big Problems, GOP=Raging Dumpster Fire

Welcome New Subscribers!/Subscribe and Save Runs Thru April 30th!

Upcoming Events | Subscribe and Save | Do More, Worry Less

Happy Saturday all. Got a few things for you today:

The US Grows As % Of Global GDP - The remarkable American economy continues to be as the FT called it the other day, “the envy of the world.” Note that as our share of global GDP has grown in recent years, China’s has declined. I will have more on this in coming days…..

Hopium Joins The Bulwark Pod - I sat down with Tim Miller for the Bulwark Podcast yesterday. It’s was a great discussion with a fellow pro-democracy warrior. You can listen here, or catch it on YouTube as well.

In our discussion, which they are calling “I Think We’re Going To Kick His Ass,” I review my basic case for why I am so optimistic about winning this November:

Joe Biden is a good President. The country is better off. We have a very strong case for re-election.

The Democratic Party is strong, unified, raising tons of money and winning elections all across the country.

And what do they have? They have Trump, the ugliest political thing any of us has ever seen, leading a party far more a raging dumpster fire than a well- oiled political machine.

On Monday I wrote about Biden’s rising poll numbers, including his best national poll so far in 2024. On Tuesday I wrote about the importance of Arizona and North Carolina this year, and new polling showing RFK taking more from Trump than Biden. On Thursday I shared some encouraging data about the health of our candidates in the House battleground, and we know that our polling in Senate races across the US remains steady and strong. I also shared data this week showing Israel-Gaza is a very secondary concern for an overwhelming majority of the electorate and young people, and that as of today it is far more a challenge for President Biden than a threat.

The site 538 turned on its 2024 national polling averages this week. Diving in you will see it shows a close, competitive election with us gaining 2 points in recent months in both the Biden-Trump head to head and in the Congressional Generic. While it does have polling averages in the Presidential battleground states, tread lightly there. We have far less polling in the battlegrounds than nationally, and many of the most recent battleground polls have been conducted for Republican audiences or with Republican funding. Averages with fewer polls are easier to push a bit to the right so take this data with a grain of salt, and note that in these polls we see Biden’s numbers improving 2-3-4 points over the last few months.

Here’s what I am seeing in the battlegrounds - MI, PA, WI are our best states right now, and in the 538 averages they are close and competitive. There are polls in each of these three states showing us ahead in recent weeks. Winning these three gets us to 269 Electoral College votes. As I wrote on Tuesday I am very optimistic that the extremism of the GOP in AZ and NC is giving us real opportunities in both states to win and make serious down-ballot gains. Nevada is always close, and we have work to do in Georgia. The campaign continues to monitor what’s happening in Florida, as Rs there will soon have to defend a newly implemented 6 week abortion ban, something that is currently polling in the lows 20s - a level of unpopularity on something that matters that is not often seen in politics.

Here’s more on 2024 if you want to dive deeper:

• Why I’m So Optimistic We Will Win This November (Video, 4/16/24) - My latest overview of where we are in the 2024 election and why I am so optimistic about winning this year. The post also has a deep dive on recent, encouraging polling data. While it remains a close, competitive election, things have gotten bluer in recent weeks, and Trump no longer leads.

• My Interview With the NYT - Here’s my interview with Adam Nagourney of the New York Times. It’s gotten a lot of attention. Do read. Lots of great stuff in here! Additionally, a new, fresh interview with me by Aaron Rupar just dropped. He’s calling it “Why the Trump campaign is in deeper trouble than you think.” It’s getting some attention and well worth your time.

• With Democrats, Things Get Better - The core Hopium presentation, this 30 minute deep dive on the progress America makes when Democrats are in the White House, has an extended section on the strong economic gains the country has made under Joe Biden. A must view for all the budding information warriors out there.

Senator Whitehouse Discusses The SCOTUS Immunity Hearing on Lawrence O’Donnell - Hopium member Arctic Stones shared this great clip of Senator Whitehouse on MSNBC Thursday night. It’s worth watching, as is the interview with Professor Lawrence Tribe that follows.

Remember here at Hopium we are not waiting for Trump to be convicted to make the case against him. For there are six things voters are going to come to know about Trump (with our help) that they didn’t know about him in 2020, an election he lost, which don’t require any court to do anything:

• That he raped E. Jean Carroll in a department store dressing room

• That he oversaw one of the largest financial frauds in American history, and owes hundreds of millions of dollars in fines and penalties

• That he stole America’s secrets, lied to the FBI about it all and shared those secrets with others. It was without question among the most grave security breaches in our history, and an extraordinary betrayal of the country by a former President

• That he tried to overturn an American election, led an armed insurrection against the Congress, fought to end American democracy for all time and has promised to finish the job if he somehow gets into the Oval Office next year

• That he and his family have, corruptly, taken more money from foreign governments than any political family in our history

• That he was singularly responsible for ending Roe and stripping the rights and freedoms away from the women of America; and last week confirmed, by embracing the states’ rights position, that he supports the most extreme abortion bans in the nation - this making him without question the most dangerous abortion extremist America has ever seen.

The Republican Party Is In Unprecedented Disarray - From The Dispatch, After RNC Shakeup, Trump Ground Game Could Be Compromised:

The Republican National Committee was poised to open and staff 40 satellite campaign offices across key battlegrounds when former President Donald Trump, now the presumptive GOP nominee, abruptly replaced RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel and her deputies with fresh leadership.

Trump’s new RNC team, led by Chairman Michael Whatley, Co-Chair (and Trump’s daughter-in-law) Lara Trump, and senior campaign adviser Chris LaCivita, killed McDaniel’s 2024 blueprint. Roughly six weeks later, neither the committee nor the Trump campaign has much infrastructure or personnel in the swing states that will decide the November 5 election, multiple sources in Washington and the crucial battleground states told Dispatch Politics this week. 

That means few if any regional and local campaign headquarters; little to no deployed field staff; and little to no traditional voter turnout activities, such as door-knocking, phone banking, or volunteer organizing. Even after the Trump-led RNC’s reimagined field program eventually emerges, their strategy is to concentrate almost exclusively on the half-dozen states that will determine Trump’s fate. Republicans elsewhere? They’re on their own…..

In early March, the RNC’s new leadership sacked more than 60 full-time staff across the communications, data, and political departments. As Dispatch Politics reported soon after, roughly 40 of the 60 let go were field troops. 

The majority of all fired employees were immediately invited to reapply for jobs. But weeks later, the field program is lagging, especially compared to the voter turnout operation stood up by President Joe Biden. The incumbent Democrat’s campaign has opened 30 headquarters alone in Michigan and has multiple such offices in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Florida.

While Democrats are raising tons of money, winning elections across the US and building the most powerful political machine we’ve ever had, Republicans are:

• Struggling to raise hard dollars to fund their campaigns at all levels

• Facing an extraordinary rebellion against Trump by influential GOP leaders, and continue to see Trump bleed support in Republican primaries

• Seeing important Party leaders get indicted across US

• Losing ground in national polling

• Watching their nominee in court not on the campaign trail

• Undergoing a wild exodus of powerful House Members. They are literally abandoning ship

• As this above story details, the RNC and Trump campaign are broke and broken, and it’s possible that they are now passed the point where they can build a serious general operation

While we have a long way to go, and a lot of work to do, in every way imaginable right now I would much rather be us than them.

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon