Making June Count, Check and Checkmate, Winning The Blue Dot
Biden's "Flag" Video. Welcome New Subscribers! Hopium Paid Subscribers Gather This Week
Happy Saturday all. Got a few things for you today:
Making June Count - June is going to be a very important political month for the United States. Trump’s guilty verdict was a shock, and will, as we discussed yesterday, start causing tens of millions of our fellow citizens who are not yet paying close attention to the election to begin to check-in. At the end of June, we have the first debate, which will be another big check-in moment. Tens of millions of people are going to start really paying attention now, and as Democrats, we need to be doing everything we can to engage them, talk to them, inform them about the choice they have, and win them over. It’s not a stretch to say that we could win or lose the 2024 election in the next 30 days.
I talked about this opportunity we have in an MSNBC interview on Wednesday night:
That’s why I’m launching a new campaign here at Hopium to Make June Count. We all need to really focus this month, and do everything we can to help our candidates get louder and reach these voters as they check-in. We have a huge opportunity now and need to seize it, together. So what I’m asking is that you commit to give as much as you can this month, put aside a few more hours to volunteer, and be as aggressive as you can in challenging your networks to join you in making June count.
As the NYT’s Nate Cohn wrote recently:
As voters tune in over the next six months, there’s a chance that disengaged but traditionally Democratic voters could revert to their usual partisan leanings.
In that spirit of doing more and reaching a little higher today we are adding a new project to our core four of Biden-Harris, Winning Arizona, Winning North Carolina and Winning The House - Winning The Blue Dot. This campaign will help secure Nebraska’s one Electoral College vote and flip the NE-2 House seat. So our terrific House candidate in NE-2, Tony Vargas, is being added to our Winning The House list of what is now 12 House races. The “blue dot” is a reference to this one Electoral College vote of blue in a red part of the country.
Here’s a short article on the two states, Maine and Nebraska, that reward their Electoral College votes based on Congressional District and not statewide winner take all.
Here’s my rationale. As you know from my recent posts, I believe we are favored to win the Presidency, flip the House and we have a very good chance of keeping the Senate 50-50. The rash of new analyses showing Biden leading among likely voters is a big deal, for these likely voter universes are far more likely to be the electorate that shows up in November.
So leading among these likely voters is where we want to be right now. I’ve also explained that I think we are doing best today in MI, PA, WI - the blue wall states are they are called - and given our advantages in these states - strong governors, ambitious campaigns by Labor, track record of winning there, good economies, our Senate candidates performing well/bad GOP candidates, hard dollar and organizational superiority - we can and should win these three states. Winning these three states get Biden to 269 Electoral College votes. Check as we say in chess. Checkmate, getting to 270, is winning Arizona or North Carolina or Nebraska’s one Electoral College vote. That’s why here at Hopium we are focusing now on these three states. For if we win any one of them in my view we will win the Presidency. It is where our money and volunteer time are most needed and best deployed.
So what I’m asking today is that together we launch a big campaign here and in our networks to make June count. Here are my fundraising goals for June 30th:
Biden Harris $400,000 - at $310,000 today - donate now
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $300,000 - at $160,000 today - donate now
Nebraska/Blue Dot - $100,000 - at $1,000 today - donate now
North Carolina - $300,000 - at $215,000 today - donate now
Winning The House - $300,000 - at $215,00 today - donate now
To support our Making June Count campaign I’ve updated two pages here which now include volunteer links for Biden-Harris, the 3 states, and the 12 House campaigns - Making June Count, Winning The House. Check them out. Share them with others. Let me know what I can do to make them better and more helpful to you. For Hopium paid subscribers I hope you will use the chat this weekend to share how you plan to make June count.
In the coming days, I will also be recording 20-25 minute interviews with my friend Jane Kleeb, the Nebraska Dem Chair, and the 12 House candidates and sharing them here on Hopium. These short interviews, similar to the ones I’ve done with Ruben Gallego and Anderson Clayton, will start being available here this week and will help you get to know everyone a bit better.
I also want to thank everyone who gave to Biden-Harris yesterday, the last day before the May filing deadline. We raised $45,000 yesterday - simply an amazing amount for this small community. I am grateful for this, and it matters. Let me explain why.
In recent weeks I’ve become convinced Trump is attempting to red wave the 2024 election. His entire identity right now is about him leading in the polls and being a winner, strong, and Biden losing and being weak. It’s a common tactic in politics and something Republicans used successfully in 2022. By trying to convince everyone the election is over, that they are going to win and there is nothing any of us can do about it, they are attempting to suppress our enthusiasm, our commitment, our work, our voting. “Trump is winning” is a volunteer and electoral suppressant, as the “red wave” was in 2022.
Every day Trump lies about this “strength.” He lies about the polls. He lies about the size of his crowds. He lies about his fundraising. He lies about his army of marauders who are going to suppress the Election Day vote. He lies about us cheating. He lies about the 2020 election. They all lied about the red wave. His hair is fake. He paints his face. He wears a girdle to hide his obesity. It is all lies, fiction, Trumpian bullshit to make this weak, deranged, hideous man - rapist, fraudster, traitor, felon - appear like a strong man, a leader, a winner.
So to counter this strategy we need to 1) keep working our asses off and get others to join us - do more, worry less 2) Make June Count and push the election into a place where it is clear Biden Is Winning. That means pulling ahead by a few points in MI, PA, WI and leading in any of the other now 5 states of AZ, GA, NE, NC, NV. Yes, that blue dot, where we lead in current polling, gets us to 270.
In current polling MI, PA, WI are tied. There are polls from the last few weeks showing us ahead in AZ, MI, NE-2, PA, WI and within the margin of error in GA, NC, and NV.
I talked to someone yesterday who has just completely private polling and he found Biden ahead in PA and WI and tied in Michigan. The reason we may already be ahead in each of these states is that almost all of the polling in the battleground states has been of registered voters, where Trump does better. As the NYT’s Nate Cohn wrote on Tuesday:
The race is still pretty close. It’s close enough that he would have a very serious chance to win if the election were held tomorrow. And of course, the race won’t be held tomorrow: There are five-plus months to go for a possible Biden comeback.
Together, there’s a case for taking a glass-almost-half-full perspective on Mr. Biden’s chances. Right or wrong, it’s a case that maybe hasn’t gotten quite as much attention as it deserves.
How is the race close? Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
If Mr. Biden won those battleground states, he’d probably be re-elected as president……That means he could lose all of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and so on, and still win.
My bottom line to all of you today - this thing is close, but I would much rather be us than them for all the reasons we discuss every day. This month tens of millions of voters are going to be checking into the election for the first time, and we need to be in their face, being loud, telling our story, and informing them about the historic awfulness of MAGA. It is very possible we can win, or lose, the election this month, which is why, together, we need to Make June Count and leave it all on the playing field now.
Just writing all this fires me up, and I am ready to go out there and go do what we need to do - as we’ve been doing all across the country these few years - together. Let’s make June count my friends.
Biden’s Inspirational Flag Video - This video, released last spring, is to me the most powerful media Team Biden has produced so far. Please watch, share with others. It very much speaks to the moment:
Upcoming Events -
Tue, June 4, 7pm ET - Monthly Hopium Paid Subscriber Get Together - Register Today!
Wed, June 5, 1pm ET - Monthly Hopium Founding Members Get Together
Thur, June 20 - Simon speaks in person at a Wisconsin Democratic Party Event (Madison) - more details soon
Tues, June 25th - Monthly Gathering Of The Hopium Community (save the date)
Thur, June 27 - 1st Presidential Debate!!!
Sat, June 29 - Simon speaks in person at Network NOVA’s 8th Annual Women’s Summit, Tyson’s Corner, VA - More info, register
Friends, let’s Make June Count and go into the summer with the lead and the momentum we need to win. We can do this people!!!!!!!!!!!! - Simon
The Morning Consult poll cited by Axios here in the chat has this summary, and none of this should be surprising to anyone:
One of the first polls conducted since a New York Jury found Donald Trump guilty of falsifying business records find that a significant minority of Republicans and Independents want him to drop out and a majority of registered voters approve of the jury's decision.
Why it matters: The Morning Consult poll conducted on Friday offers some of the first clues about how voters are reacting to the unprecedented situation.
By the numbers: 54% of registered voters "strongly" or "somewhat" approve of the guilty verdict compared to 34% who "strongly or "somewhat" disapprove.
49% of Independents and 15% of Republicans said Trump should end his campaign because of the conviction.
The polls found the race effectively tied nationally in a 1-on-1 with Biden at 45% and Trump at 44%.
Hey peeps I rushed this one out today, and I did have a lot of typos. Sorry about that. I've gone back in and fixed everything online. I apologize, and will work harder to in the future to make sure what you get is clean and good.