More Evidence of Biden Strength W/Likely Voters, Trump 2024 Is Weak Not Strong

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May 11, 2024

Happy Saturday everyone. Got a few things for you today. And get ready - I let it rip this morning:

More Evidence of Biden’s Strength In The Likely Voter Universe - As we get closer to Election Day pollsters start focusing less on adults and registered voters and a bit more on likely voters. About 80% of registered voters vote in our elections, so they are not the same universes. As I wrote last Sunday, we are starting to see a clear pattern as pollsters start testing our their 2024 likely voter models - Biden is doing much better in likely voter universes. Let’s review what the recent ABC News and NPR/Marist polls found (Biden-Trump):

ABC News Adults 44-46 Reg Voters 46-45 Likely Voters 49-45

NPR/Marist Reg Voters 50-48 Likely Voters 51-46

Here’s new data from Big Village via 538:

Almost all of the polling that has shaped our understanding of the election so far has been of adults and registered voters, including in the battleground states. Many of the battleground state polls have also been very low sample size - 600 or so. There is now mounting evidence that as we move into the likely voter universe, and we use larger sample size (more accurate) polls, Biden’s numbers get better. The polls with the largest sample size in the battleground - CBS - found MI, PA, WI tied, no Trump lead. A large sample size WI poll this week found Biden up 6.

Yes, I know this polling stuff is confusing, and makes all of our brains hurt, every day. But part of our core project here at Hopium is to cut through all the right wing noise, bluster, ignorance and bullshit in our degraded daily discourse and find truth, reality, fact. We have to learn, together, how to not allow their wild and false narratives - red waves - drive our understandings. We have to learn how to, together, liberate ourselves from the strongman narrative tactics they use to make us scared, powerless, impotent. As Anne Applebaum wrote in the Atlantic newsletter yesterday:

In the 20th Century, Communist Party propaganda was overwhelming and inspiring, or at least it was meant to be. The future it portrayed was shiny and idealized, a vision of clean factories, abundant produce, and healthy tractor drivers with large muscles and square jaws.

In the 21st century, authoritarian propaganda, whether coming from Russia, China, or the American far-right, has a very different goal: to create fear, cynicism, nihilism, and apathy. The point is to convince Americans that their democracy is degenerate, their elections illegitimate, their civilization dying. This story is told not only by Russian and Chinese bots and anonymous trolls, but by leading members of the Republican party, including the presidential candidate himself.

And as I wrote in my very first post at Hopium:

I am calling it Hopium Chronicles because I want this to be a journey guided by hope and optimism, of belief in ourselves, in love of country and a clear understanding of the nature of the conflict we are in. I have become convinced that part of Greater MAGA’s strategy is to intentionally poison our discourse with negative sentiment every day. They want us to feel bad about America, our democracy, our leaders, our institutions, our success, each other, ourselves. We cannot let them do that any more. While they talk American down every day, we need to talk it up. While they spread lies, we respond with truth and data. Hopium is a rejection of the darkness they are trying to spread. It is a way of standing up for our great country and its remarkable people. It is the key to how we win.

We try everyday to not obey in advance here. We do more, worry less. We don’t let the various red waves thrown at us every day dictate our understandings for we are learning that these are the tactics of a terrible set of leaders, something we should expect, something pathetic, weak, illiberal. For if they were winning, really winning, they would not have to invent false worlds, create false understandings and ask us to go live in there with them. If they were winning they would not have to cheat, try to overturn elections, have a corrupt right-wing judiciary delay trials, conduct fake investigations and lie in special counsel reports. If Trump was strong he would not have to paint his face, dye his hair, wear girdles and diapers too, get help from Putin, pay porn starts to keep quiet or get a clearly crazy dude with brain worms to run for President. Trump’s delusions, his bluster, all this is illiberalism are signs of a desperation, of weakness, of folks who are losing - it is all the very opposite of strength. Trump is a weak, pathetic and awful man not a strong man.

Trump and the GOP now are working furiously to convince the public of a series of things which are not true - Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in 2020, the election was not stolen or rigged; the economy is strong, it is not weak; crime is down, it is not up; we are for order at the border, Trump seeks chaos; higher gas prices are due to OPEC, Putin, MBS not Biden; Joe Biden is a family man who has suffered extraordinary losses, not the leader of a crime family; Joe Biden is a good and strong and successful President, not a failure; the country is better off, not struggling.

I am not saying these tactics aren’t effective. They are. Look at this new polling from Navigator, which shows how successful they have been at convincing Republican voters of one of the biggest and most consequential lies of the MAGA era - that Biden’s “war on energy” has raised gas prices, fueled inflation and damaged every day Americans.

This narrative is so obviously false and ridiculous that it’s hard to believe it has been successful, for as we often write here in 2023 America saw more oil produced than any year in our history and more oil produced by any country in the history; we saw more natural gas produced and exported than in any year in our history, more renewables were produced than any year in our history; and that America today is far more in control of our energy destiny and energy independent than we’ve been in many many decades. This lie has also deflected blame of these higher gas prices and higher inflation from Putin, which, among other things, gave Trump and MAGAs the political space to delay Ukraine funding for six months.

My point here is this - all these illicit and illiberal efforts, these unending red waves, false narratives and delusions, the painted face and dyed hair, while they can be effective are ultimately a sign that we are winning and they are losing. It means we are strong and they are weak. That we are successful, and they have continually let the country down. That democracy is better than autocracy and freedom better than dominion. That if we do the work and not let them scare us into fear and inaction that we will win this November and they will lose.

Listen to Anthony Scaramucci talk about Trump on CNN:

Our job, every day, is point out that the orange Emperor has no clothes, to pull the curtain back from the Wizard of Oz. To live in a place where we are strong, successful and truthful, and they are weak, pathetic and full of unending bullshit. It is why we do more, worry less here. Being full of worry, concern, doubt, fear anxiety is what they want. Don’t go there. It is how they win.

The Democratic Party has won more votes in 7 of the past 8 elections. We’ve averaged 51% of the vote in the last 4 Presidential elections, our best showing since FDR’s 4 elections. We’ve defied history and have been winning elections of all kinds all over the country since Dobbs. We keep overperforming exceptions, they keep struggling. We keep winning, they keep losing. We are raising tons of money and they are not. We are united, they are divided, historically so. The Democratic Party is strong and together we are building the most powerful political machine we’ve ever had. They are a raging dumpster fire of a political party.

For more on this fundamental contrast of

Democrats = growth, strength, progress, freedom
Republicans = recession, weakness, decline, dominion

please watch my 30 minute presentation, With Democrats, Things Get Better.

I am proud of my President, my party and my country. I know every day that I am lucky to have been born here in the United States, and to have been given the opportunities I’ve had. It is why I talk about one of our central projects here is to give Americans permission to love their country again. It is why I am fighting so hard together with all of you. For what is at stake now is whether our kids and grandkids, and the kids and the grandkids of the world, are going to have the same opportunities that we have all had in these golden decades of the Four Freedoms and Pax Americana. Whether, simply, our future is one of freedom or dominion; of the freedom of the West, or the dominion of Russia, China, Iran, Hamas and Hizbollah. America and Americans have been choosing freedom not dominion since the 18th century, and here at Hopium we are working with everything we got to ensure it keeps choosing freedom in this election and elections to come.

So, no, Trump is not winning this election. As voters get closer to making their choice, the ugliness of MAGA is causing Trump and Republicans to lose ground. Our strength among the emerging likely voter electorate is a big deal. It means we are far more likely to win this November, and that all this red wavy analysis we’ve seen has not yet caught up to the realities of what are seeing now. If we keep doing the work what should happen this November is that we win, again, and they lose, again. But it’s up to us.

Keep working hard all - for it’s how we win - Simon

Here’s more on current take on the 2024 election:

Here’s my latest take on things as we head into the weekend - Joe Biden is a good President. The economy is historically strong and the country is better off. National polling is close and competitive, within margin of error. We’ve gained a few points in recent weeks in the national vote and in the Congressional generic. The two sets of battleground state polls out last week - Emerson and CBS - had every single state within margin of error. We’ve had encouraging polls in AZ and WI this week. As I wrote Tuesday Senate and House polling is good and the GOP’s “bad candidate” in the battlegrounds problem has returned. Due to Biden’s successful Presidency Trump’s central attacks against the President are evaporating. We have enormous financial and organizational advantages right now. Trump has the most disqualifying “negatives” we’ve ever seen, and a deeply consequential rebellion inside his party is becoming an existential threat to his candidacy.
Finally, as I wrote on Sunday, we have a lot of evidence, including Tuesday’s strong Nikki Haley vote in Indiana, that as Americans get closer to voting - moving from registered voter to likely voter to voters - Trump and Republicans lose ground, and we gain. And the problem for Trump and the Rs is the whole country has begun going through that process now and will continue to do so as we go deeper into 2024.

Upcoming Events - Got a few things coming up:

Wed, May 22nd, 7pm ET - Monthly Hopium Community Wide Get Together w/Simon - Register
Thur, June 20th Evening - Simon speaks in person at a Wisconsin Democratic Party Event (Madison) - more details soon
Fri/Sat, June 28-29 - Simon speaks in person at Network NOVA’s 8th Annual Women’s Summit, Tyson’s Corner, VA - More info, register

I will also note that I’ve been a little slow at getting back to those who’ve requested me for events for this summer. Between my daughter’s lacrosse play offs and graduation festivities this spring and some critical travel dates that are still getting ironed out I’ve been unable to commit to as many events as I hoped. Will try to get back to everyone early next week - appreciate the patience all!

Let’s Do More, Worry Less - We are still raising money for and supporting three critical projects:

Thanks to the many thousands of you who have already contributed or volunteered!

Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg

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