Notes On The NYT Polls, Senator Coons On Bibi, Infrastructure Week Begins!

The NYT Poll Is One Among Many. My View of 2024 Remains Unchanged

May 13, 2024

Happy Monday all. Yes, a new set of NYT polls have dropped. While I was going to write about other things today, I understand the impact they have on our discourse and understandings. So I’m going to focus on them today, and offer some initial thoughts.

If you can start by reading my Saturday post on the 2024 election, as I will be referring to it frequently throughout this post. It remains the best articulation of where I think we are right now.

Here we go…..

I begin with a few reminders - no poll has predictive value, think of every poll as a blurry Impressionist painting of a moment and not a photograph, and we have lots of other data and insights into 2024 beyond polling. What I try to do here, hard, every day, is present to you other information about the election beyond polling for that’s how Tom Bonier, Joe Trippi and I (and others) got 2022 right when so many got it wrong. Polling is one piece of the data and information that’s available to those who work on and analyze politics and campaigns, and many in the business right now are, in my mind, overselling polling’s accuracy, predictive value and relevance.

Nothing in the NYT poll changes or even challenges my current understanding of the 2024 election. Several of its findings in fact confirm things I’ve been writing here: Biden’s strength with likely voters, MI/PA/WI are close and up for grabs, Dems are performing well in the Senate races. Let’s look at MI/PA/WI in the NYT poll (Biden-Trump, Likely Voters):

MI 47-46
PA 45-48
WI 46-47 (Biden leads in WI among registered voters)

These finds are similar to the recent large sample CBS News polls in these three states which also found all three within margin of error/up for grabs:

I realize the NYT headline of their story is Trump leads in 5 states, but that’s not what the data in these polls say. He leads in 3 - AZ, GA, NV - and 3 are essentially tied. As I wrote on Saturday, if you spend your time with polls with registered voters you see an electorate more favorable to Trump. If you spend your time with likely voters you see one more favorable to Biden. This is becoming a very important part of our emerging understanding of the 2024 election, and a dynamic that is in my view very ominous for Trump. That the NYT Times centered their headline and graphics around the results with registered voters was an editorial choice.

I also think the leaving out of North Carolina from the battleground, given a series of independent polls have found the Presidential race there within margin of error, to no longer be an acceptable decision by the NYT.

Let’s be clear - if MI, PA, WI are up for grabs, then the 2024 election is up for grabs, and Trump does not lead (added after posting).

As with other public polling in recent months, the NYT Senate results in these states are encouraging for Democrats:

New battleground state polls by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer show Democrats ahead in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

Next, life satisfaction. To me what may be the most remarkable finding in the poll is the overall contentedness of the battleground electorate:

74% satisfied
22% not satisfied

This data is very consistent with other data I’ve been sharing with you for months about how Americans are remarkably content with their lives, jobs and incomes right now. There isn’t broad discontent in the country. If there was we would not be winning again and again in elections of every kind these last few years.

Throw this data in with these recent findings from the WSJ battleground state polls showing voters believe things are better where they live

and what you see is a clear path for Biden to make the connection in these states between their contentedness and sense things are better and his Presidency. He will of course be aided in that effort by Democratic governors in AZ, MI, NC, PA, WI and by strongly performing Democratic Senate and Gubernatorial candidates in each state.

The big either insight or outlier/mistake in the NYT polls are the findings of Biden erosion with young people and voters of color throughout the battleground. Let’s compare the NYT results with 18-29 year olds with two other recent large sample national polls, Biden-Trump:

NYT 30%-31% Trump up 1
Harvard/IOP 56%-37% Biden up 19
Pew 59%-38% Biden up 21

Simply, the NYT finds an electorate much more Republican than many other recent polls, and it’s youth numbers are very much at odds with recent large sample, high quality polls. Could the NYT be right? Sure, of course it could. But to me, right now, these polls feel far more like outliers than a north star.

I have been heartened to have seen more attention given of late to what is starting to become a very big part of the story of 2024 - the financial and organization struggle of the GOP, something that will make it far harder for them to take advantage of any opportunities they may have this year. I wrote about this at length on Friday - please read if you haven’t yet. In that piece I also offer the following assessment of where things are, which the NYT polls have not altered:

Joe Biden is a good President. The economy is historically strong and the country is better off. National polling is close and competitive, within margin of error. We’ve gained a few points in recent weeks in the national vote and in the Congressional generic. The two sets of battleground state polls out last week - Emerson and CBS - had every single state within margin of error. We’ve had encouraging polls in AZ and WI this week. As I wrote Tuesday Senate and House polling is good and the GOP’s “bad candidate” in the battlegrounds problem has returned. Due to Biden’s successful Presidency Trump’s central attacks against the President are evaporating. We have enormous financial and organizational advantages right now. Trump has the most disqualifying “negatives” we’ve ever seen, and a deeply consequential rebellion inside his party is becoming an existential threat to his candidacy.
Finally, as I wrote last Sunday, we have a lot of evidence, including Tuesday’s strong Nikki Haley vote in Indiana, that as Americans get closer to voting - moving from registered voter to likely voter to voters - Trump and Republicans lose ground, and we gain. And the problem for Trump and the Rs is the whole country has begun going through that process now and will continue to do so as we go deeper into 2024.

The bottom line - the election is close and competitive today. I liken it to being in a baseball game where we are either tied 2-2 or down 2-1 in the third inning. We have a long way to go, much will change and have a lot of work to do. But as I repeatedly say, and deeply believe, I would much much rather be us than them, and I remain very optimistic we will win this November.

Senator Coons On Netanyahu - One of the Democratic Party’s most important foreign policy thinkers, and close confident to President Biden, Senator Chris Coons of Delaware, had the following to say yesterday:

Sen. Chris Coons said Sunday that the legacy of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could be to damage the long-standing relationship between the United States and Israel.
Speaking on ABC’s “This Week,” the Delaware Democrat said of the longtime Israeli leader: “Right now his legacy is the huge, strategic and defensive failure of October 7th and his legacy could be a real gap, a break in the long, strong, bipartisan, strategic relationship between the United States and Israel. I think that would be tragic.”
Coons, one of President Joe Biden’s closest allies in the Senate, added of Netanyahu: “His legacy could instead be achieving regional security and peace for Israel.”
Biden has paused the transfer of certain weapons to Israel to limit the ability of Israel to launch a full-scale attack on Rafah, a Hamas strong point that also has more than 1 million civilians in Gaza.
Coons explained to host Martha Raddatz the needle that Biden is trying to thread there.
“What matters, Martha, is whether the next stage of this conflict against Hamas, which Israel has every right to carry out, allows for civilians to get out of the way of any future attack on Rafah,” Coons said. “And that’s what President Biden has said now publicly, as well as privately, to our trusted ally, Israel.”
The senator also said that Hamas, which continues to launch strikes on Israel, is responsible for the war now under way.
“I do think it bears repeating every time we talk about this, that Hamas started this conflict and Hamas, and their conduct, has largely driven the humanitarian crisis that continues in Gaza,” Coons told Raddatz.

Infrastructure Week Begins! - From Biden world this morning:

Today, the Biden-Harris Administration is kicking off this year’s Infrastructure Week and celebrating the historic progress of President Biden’s Investing in America agenda, which continues to create good-paying jobs, boost domestic manufacturing, strengthen supply chains, and grow the economy from the middle out and the bottom up. Across the country, the Administration is cutting ribbons and breaking ground on projects to rebuild our roads and bridges, deliver clean and safe water, tackle legacy pollution, expand access to high-speed internet, and build a clean energy economy for all Americans.

While “Infrastructure Week” became an empty punchline during the prior administration, President Biden is delivering an “Infrastructure Decade” that will benefit communities for generations to come.

To date, the Biden-Harris Administration has announced over 56,000 infrastructure projects across the country and delivered nearly $454 billion from the Infrastructure Law. Today, the Administration released an updated map showcasing thousands of projects that are underway, as well as new state by state fact sheets that spotlight investments and projects across the President’s entire Investing in America agenda.

From deploying funding to replace up to 1.7 million lead pipes to launching improvements on over 165,000 miles of roads, the President’s agenda is delivering tangible progress across the country. His Investing in America agenda has now driven over $866 billion in private sector manufacturing and clean energy investments in the United States.

This Infrastructure Week, the Biden-Harris Administration is also calling on Congressional Republicans to extend funding for the Affordable Connectivity Program, which has lowered internet bills to enable more than 23 million households to access affordable high-speed internet. Without congressional action, millions of Americans will see their internet bills increase or lose internet access at the end of May.

Upcoming Events - Got a few things coming up:

Wed, May 22nd, 7pm ET - Monthly Hopium Community Wide Get Together w/Simon - Register
Thur, June 20th Evening - Simon speaks in person at a Wisconsin Democratic Party Event (Madison) - more details soon
Fri/Sat, June 28-29 - Simon speaks in person at Network NOVA’s 8th Annual Women’s Summit, Tyson’s Corner, VA - More info, register

I will also note that I’ve been a little slow at getting back to those who’ve requested me for events for this summer. Between my daughter’s lacrosse play offs and graduation festivities this spring and some critical travel dates that are still getting ironed out I’ve been unable to commit to as many events as I hoped. Will try to get back to everyone soon - appreciate the patience all!

Let’s Do More, Worry Less - We are still raising money for and supporting three critical projects:

Thanks to the many thousands of you who have already contributed or volunteered. And of course please encourage your friends and family to subscribe to Hopium Chronicles today!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon

Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg

Discussion about this post