Sensing Trump's Weakness, Iran Turns The Screws, And Bibi Flips Him The Bird

I will be joining Stuart Stevens live tomorrow at 10am ET over at Lincoln Square

Greetings everyone. Yes, Trump is a titanic f*ck up, part 1,332,300. His economic policies have slowed economic growth, slowed job growth, caused prices and the deficit to rise. Health care premiums are rising, care is harder to get, millions have lost food assistance. Utility bills all across the country are rising, as are the costs of fertilizer, diesel, and other goods our businesses need to prosper. His illegal tariffs have broken trade agreements and angered our allies. Americans are getting gunned down in our streets by his ICE goons. He continues to desecrate our Capital - ballroom/bunker construction has stopped; the Kennedy Center remains draped; the Reflecting Pool is still closed……

It is incredible what a mess he has made of things in such a short period of time.

But the mess, the failure, the fanaticism, has not been confined to his domestic program. His foreign policy has been a catastrophe for America and the world. He badly miscalculated in the Ukrainian-Russian war, choosing the wrong side and torching our most important alliances. He bent the knee to Xi in China, and looked like the pathetic coward we all the big blubbery baby man to be. And now we get news this morning that Netanyahu has rejected Trump’s Gaza “peace plan,” flipping the bird to his buddy in the White House:

And Iran has decided to turn the turn the screws hard on Trump, making dramatic new demands to re-open the Strait of Hormuz:

From The Guardian:

Iran has issued tough new demands for reopening the strait of Hormuz, while the United Arab Emirates said one of its ships was targeted by an Iranian missile, as a deal to open the strategic waterway remained out of reach on Saturday.

Iran’s politburo-like body known as the supreme national security council said the strait of Hormuz will not open until the United States “corrects its behaviour”, and its state broadcaster published a statement from the council’s secretary, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, who is also a commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The US must never threaten Iran again, the statement said, and must permanently end the war with Iran and its armed allies in the region. The US must lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports and withdraw its military from the area. It also must “completely compensate” Iran for war damage, lift sanctions and “unconditionally” release frozen assets.

There was no immediate comment from the US, which has wanted an acceptable deal on the strait before ending the blockade. According to the interim deal signed in June, a schedule to end sanctions and a plan for compensation would be part of the final deal, and negotiations would address frozen assets.

The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said on Saturday that they were close to reaching an agreement on navigation, “specifically the determination of a transit route”. But the waterway’s reopening is contingent on other conditions, he said, in remarks shared on social media, and blamed the situation on what he called the US violation of the interim deal.

I want to drill down on one part of this story:

It also must “completely compensate” Iran for war damage, lift sanctions and “unconditionally” release frozen assets.

It has been reported that for Iran “completely compensate” means at least $300 billion for rebuilding the country, something the US is now on the hook for. We know the Administration has asked for an extra $500 billion for the Pentagon this year alone. We’ve burned through years of munitions in the war, something that will cost many billions and many years to replace:

Here is updated chart that Claude builds for me about the total cost of the war to the world:

My main point here on this sweltering summer Sunday in Washington is that I think we are wildly underestimating the true economic and national security costs of Trump’s historic, titanic global failures. The economic costs as I show above are just staggering. The cost to our own security I think is only just beginning to be understood, but recall that a few days ago historian Phillips O’Brien argued that America has not been this exposed and vulnerable since 1861.

Much of our current discourse in the pro-democracy movement has been rightly focused on the domestic repair job we must do when back in power - lowering costs, improving health care, restoring rule of law, renewing our democracy, and creating accountability…..But I think the repairing of our standing in the world, rebuilding our alliances, constructing some new global security architecture is going to be of equal import, and is likely to be even more challenging than the hard work ahead of us on the domestic front.

It’s one reason why I had Rep. Greg Meeks, the Ranking Member on House Foreign Affairs Committee, drop by this week. It was the first of many conversations we will be having about our approach to the world when we get back into power in January. For Trump is leaving all of us an enormous bill and a far weaker nation. Digging out of these messes is going to take vision, courage, years and years of hard work, and a whole lot of new revenue from taxing the oligarchs who enabled this historic shitshow. It is going to be hard work, and some of the most important work ahead of us; but yes my friends, we can do hard things and need to get on with it now……..

Let close out today with our new, daily Hopium mantra:

There is nothing Trump and MAGA wants more than for us to be fighting with each other and not with him. We have one job now - elect as many of these wonderful candidates running for the House and Senate as we can. It’s where our focus must be. It’s a year of opportunity for us across the country. We must seize it, together.

We also have a wide selection of new interviews of our intrepid battleground candidates, fresh and ready for your Sunday listening and viewing pleasure:

• Senate - Sherrod Brown (Ohio), Troy Jackson (Maine)

• House - Rebecca Bennett, (NJ-7), Christina Bohannan (IA-1), Rebecca Cooke (WI-3), Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-3), Sean McCann (MI-4), Jo Mendoza (AZ-6), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-6), Denise Powell (NE-2), Manny Rutinel (CO-8)

Come hang out with me and Stuart Stevens tomorrow live at 10am ET over at Lincoln Square to talk about this post and more…..

And yes, it is that time again my friends…..

Time To Go Win These Midterms People!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The House and Senate In 2026

Special Fund To Rush Troy Jackson $100,000 By August 10th - Donate Today! | $87,100 raised, $100,000 new stretch goal | Friends we hit our original $50,000 goal in the first 24 hours of this new campaign to get Troy Jackson the resources to staff up, build out his campaign, and beat Susan Collins. Amazing - thank you all!

We aren’t stopping here - this early money really matters, and I want to now try to get to $100,000 by Monday, August 10th. Be sure watch our new interview with Troy.

Our Winning The House Campaign - $1,063,100 raised, $1,250,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Donate | Donate to all twelve of our initial wave of House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.

Friends, if these twelve courageous candidates win, the House will flip, even with Callais and their rancid mid-decade redistricting. So eyes on the prize here everyone!

Winning The House - The Second Wave Fund (Newly Expanded) - $254,700 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | We’ve launched a second House fund, one supporting candidates who’ve emerged from recent primaries and need a bit more help. Our newly expanded list now features Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Cait Conley (NY-17), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Randy Villegas (CA-22), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48).

A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these twelve, and more as other worthy candidates emerge from their primaries. Our total above includes money we’ve raised for directly for each candidate. You can watch interviews with those who’ve interviewed so far here. We are off to a great start here everyone!

Winning The Senate - $658,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a single donation to our six candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Troy Jackson (ME), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA). Our working total includes what we’ve raised for these six so far through direct donations to their campaigns. You can watch our interviews with each of these great candidates and/or contribute directly to any of them directly here.

Expanding The Map - Investing And Winning In Key Battleground And Expansion States

Winning Georgia - $29,400 raised, $300,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a contribution three ways among Senator Jon Ossoff, gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, and the Georgia Democratic Party

Winning Iowa - $32,300 raised, $300,000 goal - Donate | Our Winning Iowa fund splits a contribution three ways - to Josh Turek for Senate, to our gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party

Winning Maine - $80,300 raised, $75,000 goal - Donate | We set up this fund to help the Maine Dems get through our nominating process. With this community’s strong response we put up almost a third of the resources needed for what became a very successful process to pick a nominee. We had a big return on this investment - thank you all!

Winning Ohio - $187,100 raised, $300,000 goal - Donate | Our campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton-Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party and its terrific Chair, Kathleen Clyde

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $646,600 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up!

A Few More Things To Do

Let’s work to make sure everyone you know is Voting Early this year. Learn more about how our political battlefield is changing and how we can best protect our elections this November and ensure a peaceful transfer of power in January. Bring our Resolutions Project to your community. Fight for Hopium’s Agenda and let’s also embrace Leader Jeffries’ new agenda, “Fighting For An Affordable America.” Become a paid subscriber to Hopium to help us grow this community of proud, plucky patriots.

Strongly recommend that folks read Chair Ken Martin’s new memo, The DNC Is Building a Democratic Party That Can Win the Moment and Win the Future. While the DNC has done important things under his tenure, including the adoption of a new Presidential primary calendar, I think Chair Martin would be wise now to shake up his team and make big changes there. For things simply must get better at the DNC.

In the spirit if informing and not inflaming I’ve set up a new page to help us learn more about the Democratic Socialists Of America (DSA). Additionally, my friend Halie Soifer, the very capable CEO of the Jewish Democratic Council of America, has written a very thoughtful piece with recommendations for how Abdul El-Sayed can address the very real concerns about his candidacy in the Jewish community.

Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.

Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and elections to win, together! - Simon