Greetings all. As I am still away with family I wasn’t going to publish today. But sending along some notes from what has become all day stint at an airport after our flight cancelled this morning, after boarding………
You may have just received an email from me about a new digital intern posting here for the Fall. I didn’t mean to send it out via email but in case you have a potential candidate you can learn more about the position here. Applications are due by Monday, COB. It’s a full time, remote position. Send good candidates our way!
Trump got his worst poll of the cycle today, via FiftyPlusOne. Almost in the twenties people!
We also got new polls of the Michigan Senate race from Susquehanna and AARP. Here’s a roundup of what we’ve gotten from Michigan in recent days. It shows a close, competitive, and winnable race:
Yesterday we talked about the revelation that a firm admitted they had made up polling in California and Wisconsin to see if fake polls could get media coverage (the answer is yes, they can). This morning the site we often use to get our poll data, FiftyPlusOne, suspended two other questionable pollsters from their roster of accepted pollsters:
Today, FiftyPlusOne is permanently banning the use of any future data from The Public Sentiment Institute, and suspending the use of data from Patriot Polling until and unless they sufficiently respond to our methodological inquiries. We have discovered evidence that suggests both firms conducted surveys for political campaigns without disclosing their clients publicly. All surveys from each pollster that exist in our database at publication will be marked as partisan, as we cannot be confident they were conducted on a nonpartisan basis as the pollsters claim.
Additionally, we are permanently removing from our website all polls released by The Public Sentiment Institute, after the company admitted it fabricated vote-choice data for select respondents. This fabrication appears to have boosted the poll numbers of the political candidate that paid TPSI for polling services.
In my work over the past four years trying to shed light on the growing problem of fake and manipulated polling (and prediction markets too) I’ve raised questions about the integrity of both of these outfits. I applaud FiftyPlusOne’s effort to bring greater integrity to this dangerously shadowy - but hugely influential - part of our poisoned information environment. Hopefully efforts to clean up this part of the new battlefield will continue to gain momentum……
The “Democracy Protector” training from the ASDC/state parties New Battlefield Project will officially launch in early September. Here is what ASDC President Jane Kleeb sent around announcing the kick off of one of the core pillars of our exciting new project:
State Parties across the country along with the DNC are training volunteers to serve as Democracy Protectors—volunteers outside polling locations to help voters and to serve as a friendly face during what might be a stressful time in our elections.
I will send end along the schedule when it is formally announced, and hope every Hopium member will consider signing up for one of the trainings and becoming a Democracy Protector. Yes, this New Battlefield Project that we helped launch last week is starting to really come together. More details, including how to support this work financially, will be available once I get back from my time away with family…..
Let’s now spend time with some new ads from our battleground candidates so you can get a sense of what you investment in these races is contributing too….
Sherrod Brown in Ohio:
Josh Turek in Iowa:
Jamie Ager in NC-11:
Christina Bohannan in IA-1:
The ads are flying people! The general election is here!
As I sit here in at the airport with my family I can’t help but reflect on how much damage Trump’s “more for me, less for everyone else” agenda is doing to the country and how much harder he is making life for all of us. Our family has been flying a lot this summer and have faced unprecedented non-weather related delays, cancelled flights, and mayhem. Faced with sky high fuel costs the airlines are cutting corners on maintenance and customer service and making it harder for every day Americans to travel.
Look at these headlines in the NYT today:
The combination of buffoonish cronies running things and Trump’s idiocy, corruption, and fanaticism is doing lasting harm to the fiscal integrity of the United States. This is a headline in the Wall Street Journal today:
Here is a new story from Wired about the growing problems with food safety in America:
He and his team are struggling to even feed our soldiers:
I could go on but yes this terrible damage he’s doing to the country is why we have to keep working as hard as we can…
There is nothing Trump and MAGA wants more than for us to be fighting with each other and not with him. We have one job now - elect as many of these wonderful candidates running for the House and Senate as we can. It’s where our focus must be. It’s a year of opportunity for us across the country. We must seize it, together.
For yes, it is that time again……
Time To Go Win Some Elections!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Winning The House and Senate In 2026
Our Winning The House Campaign - Donate | $1,110,100 raised, $1,250,000 goal (new stretch goal) | Donate to all twelve of our initial wave of House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.
Friends, if these twelve courageous candidates win, the House will flip, even with Callais and their rancid mid-decade redistricting. So eyes on the prize here everyone!
Winning The House - The Second Wave Fund - Donate | $315,100 raised, $500,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund, one supporting candidates who’ve emerged from late, recent primaries and need a bit more help.
Our newly expanded list now features Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Cait Conley (NY-17), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Randy Villegas (CA-22), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48).
A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these twelve, and more as other worthy candidates emerge from their primaries. Our total above includes money we’ve raised for directly for each candidate. You can watch interviews with those who’ve interviewed so far here.
Winning The House - The Third Wave Fund - Donate | $17,100 raised, $500,000 goal | We’ve launched this new fund for candidates who have emerged even later from primaries and need a bit more help as we work to expand our map and go deeper into tough terrain. Our initial list - and it may grow - is Christina Hines (MI-10), Lindsay James (IA-02), Jake Johnson (MN-01), Jessica Killin (CO-5), Nancy Lacore (SC-01), and Brian Poindexter (OH-7).
Winning The Senate - $741,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a single donation to our six candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Troy Jackson (ME), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA).
Our working total includes what we’ve raised for these six so far through direct donations to their campaigns. You can watch our interviews with each of these great candidates and/or contribute directly to any of them directly here.
Expanding The Map - Investing And Winning In Key Battleground And Expansion States
Winning Georgia - $31,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a contribution three ways among Senator Jon Ossoff, gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, and the Georgia Democratic Party
Winning Iowa - $33,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our Winning Iowa fund splits a contribution three ways - to Josh Turek for Senate, to our gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party
Winning Maine - $81,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our Winning Maine fund splits a contribution evenly among Troy Jackson for Senate, Hannah Pingree for Governor, and the Maine Democratic Party and its Chair Charlie Dingman
Winning Ohio - $190,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton-Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party and its terrific Chair, Kathleen Clyde
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $652,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up!
Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.
Keep working hard all. We have a country to save, and elections to win all across the country, together! - Simon
I shared the Hopium temporary intern opportunity with UNM College Democrats.
My political commentary as a confessed non-expert. I think El-Sayed will win some voters because his ads make us smile and sometimes even want to dance. Same with Kamala, who I still think came incredibly close in a few short weeks with Biden-discontent working against her.
I think we are weary, and we need some joy. And good candidates who can also bring joy, maybe even make us want to dance, might be being underestimated.