Happy Friday all. Last night the President had a good night. He demonstrated remarkable mastery of complex global events, and celebrated the Anniversary of the most powerful military alliance in human history, one that has keep us safe and free for 75 years. I wake up this morning deeply proud of my President who has worked tirelessly for us these past 4 years and has made things far, far better here for all of us, navigating us successfully through challenging times (this post has been updated with newly released data since it was first published this morning).
Above is a recording of a talk I gave to Hopium paid subscribers right after the President’s press conference last night. I kick it off with 25 minutes or so of an overview of the current and more challenging national political landscape, and then answered questions for another 40 minutes or so. Do watch, and hope it is useful to you. If you think others would like to see please share it through your networks.
Adding to my look at recent polling and data yesterday that found the election still close and competitive, we got a new NPR/Marist poll this morning which had Biden up 2, 50-48. So here’s some of the polling released this week, Biden-Trump:
50%-48% NPR/Marist
44%-42% GW/YouGov
47%-46% Split Ticket/Data For Progress
47%-46% Clarity
50%-50% Emerson College
46%-46% Washington Post (Harris leads Trump 49-47)
42%-43% Redfield & Wilton
42%-43% Bendixen and Amandi (Harris leads Trump)
41%-42% Big Village
42%-44% Morning Consult
40%-43% Economist/YouGov
The overwhelming majority of polls released this week show the race essentially tied, 4 have Biden leads, and the 538 forecast this morning has Biden at 271 and winning the election.
The last battleground state poll, Bloomberg/Morning Consult had Biden gaining 2, ahead in 2 of the 7 states and within margin of error in 4 more. Neither candidate was at 270. What this data represents is a toss up race.
Vice President Harris is showing a remarkable degree strength in recent polling, something that we just weren’t sure about a few weeks ago. So commentators need to stop red waving 2024 - today this is a very close election, one Democrats can clearly win. A reminder of what the headline of the new Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll was on Sunday:
More questions need to be asked of the Republicans today why all of a sudden Trump’s polling lead appears to have disappeared. Perhaps keeping him off the trail for two weeks was a huge error, not some super savvy play.
Some top line points from my talk last night:
A fundamental source of my optimism is that when voters in the US and Europe have had to vote in recent years - not answer a poll - voters keep choosing something other than fascism. The underperformance of the public polls of the European and French right in recent months is very similar to what we’ve seen here in the US since Dobbs, including in the GOP primaries this year where Trump underperformed - not overperformed - public polling in state after state. American voters have been voting against MAGA and fascism since 2018, and I believe they will do so again this November.
As I wrote yesterday, we have to keep working, not succumb to fear and sectarianism, and stick together. We are entering a rough patch. Things are bumpy and hard right now. But soon we will have clarity, true clarity, of where we are headed and then it will be time to put our differences aside and just go. If we fight with one another, we lose. If we are unhappy with the ticket, the debate, the party, our leaders, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, George Clooney - we lose. This debate we are having now about Joe Biden’s health and fitness is hard, but necessary; so is coming together soon whatever happens. That too will be hard, for some, but necessary. MAGA, Russia, Iran, China, Trump want us fighting with one another. Don’t do it. Don’t let them win. Keep working for Biden-Harris, our great candidates across the country, the states we need to win. Failure is not an option here people - our democracy, our freedoms, our future is on the line. Do more, worry and fight with each other less. All of us here at Hopium need to be leaders now, not just workers, and lead the party and our family through this bumpy patch to one where we win, together. It is a time for leadership, courage, patriotism and hard, hard work. If you want the party to move on then start by moving on yourself and showing others how to do it.
Inflation fell in June, after not rising at all in May. This is remarkable news. Use my post from yesterday to spread what has been some of the best economic news of the last few years. Be loud and proud. Joe Biden has been a very good President for America. The economy is booming, inflation is falling, things are better here now, much much better and we need to spend every day saying so to all of our networks. And it is wrong to say people are not feeling the strong economy. They are, in their states, and there is no graph or chart that gives me more optimism about this election than this one from the WSJ a few weeks ago below. People in the 7 battleground states believe things are better where they are, and the Biden-Harris campaign should be able to, using our Democratic allies in these states, make the connection between this sense of progress and the policies of the Biden-Harris Administration. For things are better where they are due to us.
So watch my talk, review this data, be loud and proud about our President and our party, and use these links below to do more today - much much more - and worry and fight much much less. Let’s go win this thing, together.
Making July Count/We Cannot Let Up - Friends, we just did a remarkable job together here making June count. In five weeks from late May to June 30th we raised over $1m for our candidates and party committees. Many of you have been out there hustling for candidates, writing postcards, canvassing, calling and texting. We launched our Winning the House campaign which brought in more $500,000 for our 12 Hopium-endorsed candidates with the best opportunity to flip seats and help us take back the House. We added the blue dot in Nebraska to our “checkmate” state strategy, one designed to get us to 270 electoral college votes and win the election. We raised hundreds of thousands of dollars for Biden-Harris, including more than $100,000 in the days after the debate. When called once again the Hopium community answered. And today I am calling again by launching a new “Make July Count” campaign, with new goals for July 31st, below.
We cannot let up now, not for a moment. We are deep into the 2024 election and while it is summer, and we are not all on same page today, we cannot stop working to make the election everything we want it to be. So please do something this week to support this new campaign, and be on the look out for many more interviews of our endorsed House candidates in the coming days. Trying to get the remaining eight done by early August.
We can do this people!
Biden-Harris - $571,000 today, $650,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More - To find a phone bank to call into the battlegrounds click on the “Events” tab on the campaign Reach app
Winning The House - $498,000 today, $600,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More. We’ve also raising more then $40,000 into the individual House campaigns (you can either give to all 12 or each one individually)
North Carolina - $315,000 today, $400,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $283,000 today, $350,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Watch my interview with Ruben Gallego
Nebraska/Blue Dot - $111,000 today, $150,000 goal- Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb
Here’s how you can do even more:
Watch our interviews with Janelle Bynum (OR-5), George Whitesides (CA-27), Kirsten Engel (AZ-06) and Andrei Cherny (AZ-01)
Volunteer for the Biden-Harris campaign - Their phonebanks into the battleground are ratcheting up this week. I’m going to do at least one shift - can you join me?
Join me and Anderson Clayton in Raleigh on Friday, July 19th by donating to the NCDP Unity Dinner and signing up here
Commit to Vote on Day 1 and get everyone you know to join you
Finally help me spread Hopium and grow this plucky community. Sign others up to be a Hopium subscriber at this link. Note that options for group and gift subscriptions are available to those who want to bring friends and colleagues into the Hopium community. Click on the group and gift tabs here to learn more. To update your payment information or check your renewal status follow these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep the Hopium flowing and our community growing!
Keep working hard all. Heads down, connect to your love of country and let’s go win this thing, together - Simon
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