Been A Good Week Of Polling For Democrats, New Polls In Michigan, As His Powers Ebb Trump's War With Reality Is Growing More Desperate

Got a bunch of terrific new candidate interviews for you.....

Happy Sunday all. Some wonderful candidates dropped by to talk to us in the past few days:

• Troy Jackson (Maine Senate)

• Dr. Richard Pan (CA-6)

• Manny Rutinel (CO-8)

• Denise Powell (NE-2)

• Sean McCann (MI-4)

• Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-3)

As I discussed in my weekly talk and my Friday post this was very bad week of polling for them and a very good week of polling for us. The generic ballot appears to have moved a few points in our direction in recent weeks - a very encouraging development heading into the home stretch of the election:

The NYT has more details this morning about the attack on water systems in seven US states that we discussed yesterday: (Michigan and Minnesota are the only confirmed states):

The scope of cyberattacks on U.S. water systems has grown to include at least seven states and may be far wider, officials and experts warned, as the authorities raced to safeguard the nation’s water supply against an assault that increasingly appeared to be the work of Iran.

While there were no indications that any water supply had been altered or made unsafe to drink, state and local officials throughout the country were on high alert for potential problems in vulnerable computers that are commonly used to monitor and adjust water quality, including chemical-treatment levels and water pressure. Minnesota first publicly reported the attacks, and now Michigan says its systems have also been targeted.

The attack has little precedent, experts said, but has long been the stuff of nightmares and sensationalized Hollywood thrillers: an apparent cyberattack by a foreign power during a time of war that could, at least in theory, jeopardize the health and safety of Americans.

Officials cautioned that they had not definitively determined that Iran was responsible for the attack and that the investigation was still preliminary. But they said Iran had stepped up cyberattacks since the U.S. and Israel launched a war against the country five months ago, and had previously targeted similar water systems and other critical infrastructure in the U.S. There seemed no financial motive, making a criminal attack less likely.

Despite growing concerns, President Trump sought to downplay the matter on Friday by blaming Minnesota — which was early to spot and report the recent surge in malicious hacking activity, helping to prompt other states to probe their own water systems — for suffering intrusions his own intelligence agencies believe were highly likely carried out by Iran, officials familiar with the assessment said.

“I think Minnesota is behind it,” Mr. Trump said on Friday in response to a reporter’s question about Iran’s possible involvement, which The New York Times earlier reported. “I don’t think there was an Iranian cyberattack.”

The state’s Democratic governor, Tim Walz, dismissed the accusation, warning in a social media post that this “is what modern warfare looks like.”

After Mr. Trump’s remarks, federal officials privately said Iran remains the top suspect but that the assessment remained preliminary and had not yet established definitive forensic proof. That is not unusual in complex cyber-investigations, which can often take months to reach authoritative conclusions, if at all.

I shared this sentiment on Bluesky last night:

Trump’s struggles to prevent the real world from rebelling against his mad delusions are growing more desperate and pathetic as his powers ebb:

This morning reality rudely intruded again as Trump once again “climbed” down from the fantasy that he can win the Iran war and returned to seeking a “deal” - for he has no other viable course now other than to formally surrender and work with allies to forge some of kind of rough, regional peace.

Many of you have asked about the Michigan Senate primary. I have no idea what is going to happen but my guess is that the primary will be closer than some of the polling we’ve seen this week. As we have gotten a lot of polling in recent days, including a new one this morning from a highly regarded pollster EPIC-MRA, let’s see what we can make of all the data.

In the past few days we’ve gotten three general election polls in the Senate race. All three have Stevens leading Mike Rogers, all three have El-Sayed trailing Rogers. Stevens outperforms El-Sayed by an average of 7 points in these three general elections polls:

Here’s how I break down the primary polling we’ve seen since the beginning of June:

Let’s assume El-Sayed is ahead in the primary despite the lack of high quality, independent polling here. That El-Sayed is polling better in the primary than the general would be consistent with what we’ve discussed here - there are no examples of “new left”/Bernie progressives winning in a battleground race for governor, Senate, or the US House in recent years. While we know this politics can win in Democratic primaries in deep blue areas those of us in “the establishment” have concerns about how well it will perform in battleground general election campaigns for it appears to be built for Democratic primary audiences and not the broader electorate.

As I said in my talk this week Stevens has been endorsed by Michigan elected officials who have won statewide general elections. Those who have won those tough races there believe Stevens to be a better general election candidate, something the polling here seems to confirm.

In these general election polls El-Sayed is performing way below the partisan lean of the state, as Platner did in Maine even in his best polls, and DSAer Francesco Hong is in Wisconsin right now (she trailed in a recent general election poll). El-Sayed is running far behind Jocelyn Benson, our candidate for governor, as Platner trailed our candidate for Governor in Maine, Hannah Pingree, before dropping out:

So what this polling suggests is that if El-Sayed were to win the primary he will have work to do to bring the party together - a party that he has repeatedly attacked - and forge a better general election message if he is to beat Mike Rogers this November.

I also want to note the El-Sayed campaign and their allies have deployed a tactic in this race that’s been used by Republicans in recent years, and not by us - flooding the zone with favorable polls to shape the narrative of the race. In the past month 5 of the 12 primary polls released in Michigan have come from the El-Sayed campaign or their ideological allies - almost half. In those polls he leads by an average of 15 points. In June they released three additional general election polls. So if I counted correctly El-Sayed’s world released 8 of the 18 polls we’ve seen in Michigan these past two months - 44%, again almost half. This was a major effort to shape the understanding of the race. I'm not sure there has been anything like this on our side of the game in recent years.

As we’ve discussed here the decline of legacy media means that our understanding of elections will be, unfortunately, increasingly shaped by partisan or ideological actors using polls, prediction markets, and on-line manipulation to ferociously manufacture “consent” or as Renee DiResta called it recently a “majority illusion.”

For more on this new wild west of narrative shaping polls see:

• This smart analysis from Bill Scher in the Washington Monthly, The Platner Collapse Is a Cautionary Tale About Polling

• This NYT deep dive into the fake Republican polling in 2022, The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed A False Election Narrative (gift link)

• My review of the failed effort to flood the zone with juiced GOP polls to red wave the NJ Governor’s race last year

Happy Sunday all, and yes it is that time….

Time To Get To Work, Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The House and Senate In 2026

Special Fund To Rush Troy Jackson $100,000 By August 10th - Donate Today! | $75,600 raised, $50,000 original goal, $100,000 new stretch goal | Friends we hit our original $50,000 goal in the first 24 hours of this new campaign to get Troy Jackson the resources to staff up, build out his campaign, and beat Susan Collins. Amazing - thank you all!

We aren’t stopping here - this early money really matters, and I want to now try to get to $100,000 by Friday, August 7th. We can do this people, and be sure watch our new interview with Troy.

Our Winning The House Campaign - $1,029,100 raised, $1,250,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Donate | Donate to all twelve of our initial wave of House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.

Friends, if these twelve courageous candidates win, the House will flip, even with Callais and their rancid mid-decade redistricting. So eyes on the prize here everyone!

Winning The House - The Second Wave Fund (Newly Expanded) - $233,100 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | We’ve launched a second House fund, one supporting candidates who’ve emerged from recent primaries and need a bit more help. Our newly expanded list now features Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Cait Conley (NY-17), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Randy Villegas (CA-22), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48).

A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these twelve, and more as other worthy candidates emerge from their primaries. Our total above includes money we’ve raised for directly for each candidate. You can watch interviews with those who’ve interviewed so far here. We are off to a great start here everyone!

Winning The Senate - $616,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a single donation to our six candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Troy Jackson (ME), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA). Our working total includes what we’ve raised for these six so far through direct donations to their campaigns. You can watch our interviews with each of these great candidates and/or contribute directly to any of them directly here.

Expanding The Map - Investing And Winning In Key Battleground And Expansion States

Winning Georgia - $28,800 raised, $300,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a contribution three ways among Senator Jon Ossoff, gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, and the Georgia Democratic Party

Winning Iowa - $30,900 raised, $300,000 goal - Donate | Our Winning Iowa fund splits a contribution three ways - to Josh Turek for Senate, to our gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party

Winning Maine - $79,400 raised, $75,000 goal - Donate | We set up this fund to help the Maine Dems get through our nominating process. With this community’s strong response we put up almost a third of the resources needed for what became a very successful process to pick a nominee. We had a big return on this investment - thank you all!

Winning Ohio - $185,100 raised, $300,000 goal - Donate | Our campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton-Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party and its terrific Chair, Kathleen Clyde

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $641,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up!

A Few More Things To Do

Let’s work to make sure everyone you know is Voting Early this year. Learn more about how we can best protect our elections this November and ensure a peaceful transfer of power in January. Bring our Resolutions Project to your community. Fight for Hopium’s Agenda and let’s also embrace Leader Jeffries’ new agenda, “Fighting For An Affordable America.” Become a paid subscriber to Hopium to help us grow this community of proud, plucky patriots.

Many are asking about the news coming from the DNC these days. Strongly recommending that folks read Chair Ken Martin’s new memo, The DNC Is Building a Democratic Party That Can Win the Moment and Win the Future. While the DNC has done important things under his tenure, including the adoption of a new Presidential primary calendar, I think Chair Martin would be wise now to shake up his team and make big changes there. For things simply must get better at the DNC.

I’ve set up a new page to help us learn more about the Democratic Socialists Of America (DSA). Check it out and let me know what you think, offer other articles or resources you think I should include.

Please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.

Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and elections to win, together! - Simon