Good morning everyone! Got a few things for you today. First, sending along a recording of my presentation last night to our proud, plucky, and patriotic paid subscribers (video, transcript above). It’s a comprehensive - and joyful - look at our great election on Tuesday, our best in five years. We also had a lively Q and A session afterwards. Get to it when you can and please hit like here and share with others if you find it helpful.
Second, below, is an updated written early take on what happened with graphs and links. I will be updating this recap as more data comes in and we get a deeper understanding of what happened.
The bottom line - people are pissed, and Democrats need to keep fighting.
Third, I am doing a lot of live and in-person events recapping in the coming days, and will be hosting many guests here as well. Check our Events page for the latest schedule and links. Recordings of these events can always be found under the Podcast tab on the main Hopium site and on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify too.
Great work everyone - Tuesday was a big f-ing deal!
Hopium’s Evolving Early Take On The 2025 Blue Wave Election (11/6/25)
2025 Was A Blue Wave Election, The Country Is More Democratic Today - Democrats not only won the big races we also won in local races - school board, city council, mayor, county - across the country.
The generic ballot has been 7-8 points more Dem than a year ago, Gallup Party ID has seen Dems gain 12 points over the past year (more on that here). We saw something like these shifts across the US last on Election night. The country is much bluer today than it was a year ago.
Tuesday night’s results are consistent with polling we’ve seen that has Democrats competitive in red states like Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, and leading in blue/purple states like Maine and North Carolina.
Sherrill outperformed Harris by 7 points last night, Spanberger by 10. The country has moved, so far, by something like 7 to 10 points towards the Democrats since last November.
The Margins. We Didn’t Just Win. We Won Big - Look at these margins. In most races we outperformed the public polling:
Mikie Sherrill - 56%-43% (+13)
Abigail Spanberger - 58%-42% (+16)
Yes On Prop 50 - 64% -36% (+28)
No On Question 1 - 64%-36% (+28)
The 3 PA Supreme Court races 61%-39% (+22)
The two GA PSC races came in at 63%-37% (+26)
Mamdani broke 50% in a three way race
Jay Jones is up 7 points right now in the VA AG’s race
We made enormous gains across Virginia and had a very good night in the Miami mayoral election too (it is headed to a December run off).
In retrospect this data from CNN was some of the most important we had heading into the election:
From that CNN poll:
Looking ahead to next year’s midterms, Democrats appear to have a very early advantage: 47% of registered voters say they’d vote for the Democrat in their district if the election were held today, while 42% prefer the Republican. More say they’ve ruled out supporting a Republican (42%) than say the same about a Democrat (35%). And 41% say they would be sending a message that they oppose Trump with their vote, nearly double the 21% who say their vote would be a message of support for the president. Independents break in Democrats’ favor on the generic ballot (44% to 31% for Republicans, with 19% saying they wouldn’t pick either right now).
Registered voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents are far more likely than Republican-aligned voters to say they are extremely motivated to vote next year (67% compared with 46%). Those Democratic-aligned voters who consider the state of democracy to be a top concern are perhaps the most fired up within the party: 82% in that group say they are deeply motivated to vote, compared with 57 % among Democratic-aligned voters who call the economy their top concern.
CNN’s poll results suggest that the Democratic Party’s ongoing internal image troubles may not necessarily translate into defections at the ballot box. Democratic-aligned voters remain far less fond of their own party (65% have a favorable view of the Democratic Party) than Republican-aligned voters (80% have a favorable view of the GOP), but even those Democratic-aligned voters with a negative view of the party are almost universally behind the Democratic candidate in their district (93%) and broadly motivated to vote (71% say they are extremely motivated).
All told, Democrats hold a 12-point advantage among those voters who say they are extremely or very motivated to turn out next year.
Democrats Restored Their Big Margins With Young People and Hispanic Voters in NJ and VA - In a very encouraging development we put our majority coalition back together in NJ and VA:
Sherrill won Hispanic voters 68-31 (+37) and 18-29 year olds 69-31 (+38)
Spanberger won Hispanic voters 67-33 (+34) and 18-29 year olds 70-29 (+41)
This collapse of support for Republicans in these two critical groups central to Trump’s victory in 2024 is consistent with the national data we track:
If Democrats can maintain these margins in the 2026 midterms it is going have a big impact in states like Arizona, California, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Texas and potentially Florida.
The Red Wave Pollsters Took A Huge Credibility Hit - Mikie Sherrill won 56%-43% (+13). Not a single independent poll showed the race within margin of error, ever. Here is how the red wavers imagined it in the closing days:
Atlas Intel Sherrill 50%-49% (+1)
Emerson Sherrill 50%-48% (+2)
co/efficient Sherrill 48%-47% (+1)
Quantas Sherrill 49%-46% (+3)
Neighborhood Sherrill 44%-44% (even)
Trafalgar/IA Sherrill 45%-44% (+1) IA = Insider Advantage
All of them were off by 10% points or more.
Trump Has Come To Understand That The Shutdown Is Hurting Them - Yesterday morning Trump made this remarkable statement:
I think Trump is right - the shutdown did play a major role in our big wins on Tuesday. First, the decision by Leaders Schumer and Jeffries to fight Trump this fall has energized Democrats. Second, Trump’s management of the shutdown has confirmed our essential arguments about him - that he doesn’t care about the American people, and that imagines himself as an unaccountable King.
Newly published Navigator data shows Trump and the Rs continue to lose the big arguments on the shutdown and their standing continues to erode:
Trump Is A Weakened And Diminished Figure, His Mandate Has Been Revoked By The American People - Simply, Trump has been a terrible, terrible leader and people are pissed. He has done clear material harm to the American people and our country, on purpose, by design. He has become wildly unpopular, his agenda (which Republicans have to run on next year) even more so. He is acting far more like an insane dictator than an American President, something voters have begun to figure out. And people are pissed.
As we’ve written last week we saw some of the biggest cracks in Trump’s Congressional coalition this year as the Senate voted three times to repeal his destructive tariffs (see our discussion with Senator Tim Kaine for more on this). Can the cowardly Speaker, clearly scared of his own conference, really keep his Members home now? They should come back now and deal with the many crises the President’s reckless leadership has caused and must, must get to work on passing a year end budget.
Look at this data from the Wednesday’s NYT . Nearly half of all imported goods are now subject to his ridiculous “more for me, less for all of you” tariffs:
In these recent videos and written analyses (here, here, here) I’ve argued that if the elections went well - and they have - there was going to be tremendous pressure on the Republicans to start course correcting and mitigating the damage Trump and they have done to the country, and to their political prospects. Democrats in Congress need to understand that as painful as the shutdown has been we have forced a necessary conversation about the harms Trump is doing to the country that we needed to have; and Trump and Johnson’s petulant and destructive response to Democrats stepping into their own power has reinforced our core arguments about their malevolence and illiberalism. They have created a vicious cycle for themselves, and all of this contributed to our big wins on Tuesday night.
The bottom line - people are pissed, and we need to keep fighting.
Let’s Keep Working It Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thank you to everyone who worked so hard to make last night’s big wins possible!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Winning The Midterms - Support Our 2026 Candidates
Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $49k raised- Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Gov. Cooper
Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $91k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my inspiring interview with Senator Ossoff
Hopium House 7 (2026) - $250,000 goal, $235k raised - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer | Watch My Interviews With Our Intrepid Incumbents
Expanding The Map - Support Our Audacious Expansion Fund (2026-2032)
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $250,000 goal, $185,000 raised - Join our new campaign to invest in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas and watch interviews with the state Party Chairs of all 5 states | Donate to all five state parties | Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties!
Our updated fundraising goals are now for the end of the year, December 31.
Defending America, Winning The Big Arguments With Trump - We have two recommended actions today:
1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our our emerging four part agenda. Demand that your Senators and House Member work to:
Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world and fully fund SNAP FFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Defend our democracy, rule of law, and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE, restoring due process for immigrants across the country, vigorously defending the 1st Amendment, warring against his outrageous targeting of his domestic political opponents, and ending the use of the military on our streets and the unlawful occupation of our cities
Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; support and co-sponsor Rep. Haley Stevens’ effort to Impeach and remove Robert Kennedy
Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia and China
2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Be sure to check out our new discussion with Deborah Potter and Rachel Poliner who have passed resolutions in New Mexico and Boston. They offer practical advice on how to get a resolution passed in your own community.
Remarkably, members of this community have passed or are advancing 85 (!!!!) resolution projects in 23 states + DC. Can we get to all 50 states by the end of the year?
Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder!
Keep working hard all, and remember Hopium is hope with a plan. We don’t just hope tomorrow will be better than today.
We do the work to make it so - Simon
