Happy Saturday all. 10 days out! We need to make this day, and every one of those 10 days, a good day for our democracy. Make sure you do your part. Keep working hard and closing strong. It is how we win!
I start today with this incredibly powerful speech by Beyonce last night in Houston. Watch, listen, share and be lifted up and inspired:
And here’s the whole amazing rally from Houston last night:
Remember you can watch all of the campaign’s rallies live on their YouTube channel.
Here’s the campaign schedule today. The VP and the campaign just keep bringing it every day:
Vice President Harris will travel to Michigan for a Get Out The Vote rally in Kalamazoo, Michigan with First Lady Michelle Obama marking the first day of early voting statewide in Michigan.
Governor Walz will deliver remarks at a Native Americans for Harris-Walz get-out-the-early-vote celebration in Window Rock, Arizona — located on the Navajo Nation. In the evening, Governor Walz will be joined by actor and comedian George Lopez, and political strategist and commentator Ana Navarro for a Harris-Walz campaign rally in Phoenix, Arizona, and encourage Arizonans to make a plan to vote early in-person or return their mail ballots.
Second Gentleman Emhoff will travel to Harrisburg, PA to deliver remarks uplifting the Vice President’s New Way Forward economic agenda.
Mrs. Walz will attend and speak at canvass kickoffs in Marquette and Escanaba, Michigan.
On Tuesday The Vice President will be coming to the National Mall to make her week out closing argument. You can sign up to the attend the event here. There is not yet an exact time. For those in the DC area please share the link and invite with your friends. It’s a rare chance for those of us in this region to attend a Presidential campaign event!
The 2024 Election - I Would Much Rather Be Us Than Them - Enjoy our new Closing Strong interview with Nevada Senator Catherine Cortez, above. In our discussion she explains why she is optimistic that the VP will carry Nevada, a sentiment I am hearing from folks on the ground here despite the current noise.
My latest 2024 election toplines, fresh each day:
Non-red wave national and state polling has been remarkably consistent and steady since the debate. The VP leads by 2-3-4 points nationally, and we are closer to 270 than Trump. Her favs/unfavs are far better than Trump’s, which can matter for late-breaking voters. She’s also closed the gap on the economy with Trump - a huge achievement. The flood of red wave polls in recent weeks (over 80 polls, 31 different orgs) have tipped some of the averages but do not be fooled. It is a very close election that I still believe favors us, and it is not slipping away. Both the NYT and CNN polls released yesterday have very heavy R weighting, making them far more Republican than many other recent polls.
The Harris-Walz campaign has a far greater capacity to close strong and win a close election. Our financial advantage means we will be putting more paid ads in front of voters in these closing days. Our grassroots superiority means we will be making more direct voter contact. And the daily spectacle the campaign is putting is also bringing the campaign and its message to more voters at this critical time. It is just more likely that we will move this close election towards us in the home stretch.
We are seeing the impact of our greater capacity to close in the early vote now. In the battlegrounds we are outperforming the national early vote by 7 points today and are now at 2020 margins. We start the day with big, encouraging early vote leads in MI, NE-2 and WI. While Republicans came of the gate strong in some states, we have gained ground every day this week in AZ, GA, NC and NV. PA has gotten better this week too. It’s trench warfare out there in the early vote peeps, and we just have to keep fighting and keep working it. Learn more about my take on how the power of the Democratic grassroots has the ability to create “two elections” - a bluer election inside the battleground, a redder one outside - something that we may be seeing again this year.
Since Dobbs, we’ve been the party overperforming polls, not Republicans. Trump and Republicans, like their fascist allies in Europe and France this summer, have underperformed public polls repeatedly in this and the last election cycle. Will it be different this time? I wouldn’t bet on it.
The Senate remains a brawl, and there is a great deal of optimism about what we are seeing in the House races. The VP rallied last night for Colin Allred who is making a go of it in Texas!
Our candidate isn’t unraveling on camera every day, and ducking challenging interviews and debates. Our candidate isn’t a rapist, fraudster, traitor and 34 times felon, the oldest person to be the nominee of an American political party and the most dangerous political leader in all of our history. Our candidate, the Vice President of the United States of America, is strong, winning, optimistic, committed to opportunity and freedom, is for the people and is working unbelievably hard to win this election for all of us.
Here’s my rough calculation of national polls released since Monday, October 14th:
Independent Polls - Harris +2.5 (including NYT/CNN polls)
Right-aligned polls - Trump +1
Here is today’s Washington Post battleground state polling average (more highly curated to exclude junky and right wing polls). We win this election.
Got a lot of stuff for you to read, watch and listen to this weekend:
Watch my Thursday night appearance on Alex Wagner’s MSNBC show. Alex, Dan Pfeiffer and I had a great discussion about the election - polling, the early vote, and the big story that just broke about Elon Musk’s illicit and dangerous relationship with Vladimir Putin.
My new video presentation and Hopium post on the election. The video and post are a very comprehensive deep dive on where things stand and are well worth your time.
Our new Closing Strong episode with Nevada Senator Cortez Masto talking about why she thinks we will win there despite the early noise (see above too), a really interesting look at the third party vote (or lack thereof), and Tara and I do our regular roundup of the week’s electoral developments. Strongly recommend for those who want to go deeper into the Nevada early vote.
On Thursday Tom Bonier and I joined Ben Meiselas of MeidasTouch for a really detailed look at the early vote and recent polling data. This is a must watch for the data nerds in Hopium land.
This week I also sat down with The Center for American Progress for a wide ranging and wonderful conversation for their The Tent podcast. Enjoy this one too!
I will do my regular deep dive on the early vote again tomorrow, and will also be addressing this breaking story too:
Doing More And Worrying Less/Working Hard And Closing Strong In The Home Stretch - Mark Hamill joined us on Thursday for our phonebank!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And we got an incredible amount of calls done for CA-45 and Harris-Walz in North Carolina and Wisconsin. Thank you to all who came. We have one more night of calling left. Sign up today!
Tuesday, Oct 29th, 7-9pm - Calls for Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Janelle Stelson (PA-10) and Harris-Walz - Register Here (hope we will hear from both candidates, still working on it)
My one big ask today - please donate either to Ruben Gallego/Arizona or Anderson Clayton and the NC Dems. We need to keep working that second path to 270 beyond the core path of MI/PA/WI and NE-2!
I want to thank all of you who are self-reporting in on all your remarkable work across the country. Postcards, canvassing, back yard phonebank parties - you all are doing the work we need to do to win. For when the Hopium community is called - you answer! Thank you all.
Some have asked - are donations this late useful? Yes they are. My advice is that whatever you are going to give this year give it this weekend. The earlier they get the money the more useful it is to the campaign. Late money goes directly into augmenting paid advertising and reaching more voters. So yes it matters. Let’s keep working it people!
Harris-Walz, Our Presidential Checkmate States and Wisconsin - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these three front-line state parties:
Harris-Walz, The Mothership - $1,327,000 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | Subscribe to The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel and watch her inspiring rallies live
North Carolina - $933,000 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $561,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego
Wisconsin Dem Party - $90,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Watch Our Recent Closing Strong Interview with the great Ben Wikler
Nebraska/Blue Dot - $308,000 raised, $300,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb
Winning The House - Keeping getting very good vibes from our candidates and House Democratic leadership about flipping the House this year. We need to keep working it peeps!
Support All 15 Hopium-Backed Candidates With A Single Donation - $1,737,000 raised, $1,750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer, Learn More and Watch Interviews With Our Candidates (for our higher net worth donors note that you can give up to $49,500 split 15 ways for this group). You can donate to any one of our 15 candidates directly here.
Keeping The Senate Blue - this is a brawl my friends, and we just have to keep working it:
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $561,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Montana/Jon Tester - $168,000 raised, $200,000 goal (new stretch goal!) - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Ohio/Sherrod Brown - $113,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Wisconsin Dem Party/Tammy Baldwin - $84,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Nebraska/Blue Dot - $308,000 raised, $300,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Growing The Hopium Community - We’ve set some goals for the growth of our community so more of us can be doing more and worrying less in the home stretch:
Hopium Subscribers - 114,325 this morning, 125,000 goal
Paid Subscribers - 13,252 this morning, 14,000 goal
Great work everyone. We are making good progress here. Hopium paid subscribers get access to a weekly live home stretch political briefing and Founding Members will have their own small gathering on Fridays. You can become a paid subscriber and help us hit our goals by clicking on the link below or following this link. The subscription tab includes options for gift and group subscriptions, all 10% off through Election Day!
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you.
Let’s bring it home!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Simon
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