Lawrence On Getting Back Up, 2 More Days To Make June Count, Early Data Shows Little Movement In The Election
Tom Bonier and I Speak This Afternoon at 3pm in Tyson's Corner, VA - Join Us!
Happy Saturday all. I am grateful for the spirited debate we are having in our paid subscriber chat about Joe Biden’s struggles this week and Donald Trump’s epically bat-shit crazy debate performance. As always, folks should work hard to be civil and respectful, particularly in weighty moments like this one. As I wrote yesterday, I am taking a few days to consider everything that’s happen, read and listen to people here and whom I respect. This weekend I am most focused on making these last two days before the critical filing deadline on Sunday night at midnight really count. We need to end this critical month strong.
Our community has really rallied this June, and we are very close to hitting our ambitious goals (see below). We’ve now raised more than $800,000 in the last five weeks to our critical campaigns and party committees, and in just the last two days, you all have raised $65,000 for Biden-Harris - a remarkable and deeply meaningful expression of support for Joe Biden when he needs it most.
Many of you have commented that yesterday in a campaign event in North Carolina we saw a strong, fierce, energetic, compelling Joe Biden. I think the best way to watch the video that’s been making the rounds is to watch this 20 minute segment from the great Lawrence O’Donnell last night which includes an extended clip of this now famous Raleigh rally. In a time of challenge for the country, Lawrence has really stepped up, and has become one of our valued and important commentators. The time I get to spend with him on MSNBC a few times a month is the part of my work these days that I look forward to most. I always, always learn from him. So set aside 20 minutes today and watch this video. It is likely to be the most important thing you do this weekend (other than help make June count!):
As Lawrence mentions, we know about 30% of those likely to vote this fall watched or streamed the debate on Thursday night. The historically small audience that checked in was likely very hard partisans on both sides, particularly given that CNN allowed Fox to run a simulcast of the debate on its network, giving Trump supporters a safer way to watch. That so few undecided or persuadable voters checked into the debate could explain why a new 538/Ipsos poll taken yesterday, entirely after the debate, found almost no movement (and well within margin of error) from a previous poll of the very same people. Note Biden leads here today by 3.2 pts, 47%-44%.
Other early data suggests the debate did not hurt Biden. A new Morning Consult poll - a credible, independent pollster - taken entirely after the debate has Biden leading 45-44, which is a 1 point gain for Biden since their last poll earlier this week.
A CNN focus group done on Thursday night of 15 undecided voters in Macomb County, Michigan found them splitting 7 for Biden, 7 for Trump and 1 remained undecided. Biden is at 271 Electoral College votes in the 538 forecast today, and slightly more favored to win. Here’s a great quote from a Detroit Free Press article about the debate, Biden’s Debate Night May Not Have Changed Many Michigan Voter’s Minds:
Angel Holbrook, of Taylor, an independent who voted for Biden in 2020 and plans to do so again this November, said her views were not changed by Thursday's debate and it was Trump's debate performance that should get the most scrutiny, not Biden's.
"Trump's tendency to sidestep questions, divert the discussion toward irrelevant topics, and resort to panic techniques showcases a lack of focus and understanding of the country's pressing issues," Holbrook said after the debate.
"His consistent gaslighting tactics and self-centered behavior only serve to exacerbate the existing rifts within the nation," she said. "Trump's disregard for accountability, penchant for blame-shifting, and his failure to take responsibility for the consequences of his actions paint a concerning picture of his leadership.
Biden stayed composed and focused and has good people behind him, Holbrook said. "We don't have much of a choice," but "I'd rather roll the dice with Biden at this point."
Holbrook, who works in real estate, said she sees signs of further strengthening in what is already a strong economy in the state.
Yes, I am with Angel - there should be far more attention now on Trump’s insane performance in the debate, something I tried to do in a 20 minute live discussion I had with Christiane Amanpour yesterday for CNN International. What follows is a 6 minute edited version of our talk which is airing on CNN in the US and PBS this weekend:
In politics you have good days, and bad days. There is a long way to go in this election, an election that for all intents and purposes started this week and is today close and competitive, with us I believe more likely to win. My basic take on 2024 hasn’t changed, and if anything the Trump I saw on Thursday night looked far more extreme, bat-shit crazy, and beatable than I expected.
I was disappointed with Biden’s performance on Thursday, and I think the campaign needs to spend meaningful time figuring out how their big debate gambit backfired and what it means going forward. Yes, our job got a bit harder this week. But today, June 29th, 2024, I wake up knowing that over the next 4+ months I would much rather be us than them. This is what I continue to see this when I look at the election:
Joe Biden is a good President. The country is better off. We have a very strong case for re-election
The Democratic Party is strong, winning elections across the country, raising tons of money, blessed with a very strong farm team and building the most powerful political machine we’ve ever seen
And they have Trump - rapist, fraudster, traitor, felon - who was so manifestly unfit, so full of lies, so extreme and dangerous, so, how do we say it? - batshit crazy - Thursday night that it remains hard to believe two days later.
Proud to be in this fight with all of you. Let’s get back up and go win this thing, together. And remember as we head into the July 4th holiday we Democrats fly our flags right-sided up, not upside down.
2 Days To Make June Count All - Our Making June Count campaign has brought in more than $800,000 over the past 5 weeks or our candidates and state parties. Many of you have also been canvassing, writing postcards, phonebanking and more in June. We are a community of doers here at Hopium. We do more, worry less, and man if there ever was a time to do more there last two days of June are it.
So let’s get to work folks. We need to have a strong last two days days of the quarter. We can rest and talk on Monday. Learn more about the “Check and Checkmate” strategy driving our June campaign and recommendations. Watch our new interviews with Nebraska Democratic Party Chair Jane Kleeb, Janelle Bynum (OR-5), George Whitesides (CA-27), Kirsten Engel (AZ-06) and Andrei Cherny (AZ-01). You can find ways to donate. volunteer and make June count here:
Biden-Harris - $490,000 today, $450,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Watch my favorite Biden-Harris ad “Flag.” Yes, we’ve blown past our ambitious $400,000 goal, and our new one of $450,000 too - thank you all!
Winning The House - $392,000 today, $400,000 goal - yes!!!!! - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More. We’ve blown past our $300,000 goal and are now shooting for $400,000 - great work everyone!
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $226,000 today, $300,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More - Watch my interview with Ruben Gallego
North Carolina - $274,000 today, $300,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More - Watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton
Nebraska/Blue Dot -$80,000 today, $100,000 goal- Donate | Volunteer | Learn More - Watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb
Thank you all! Our community of proud patriots and information warriors just keeps bringing it day after day after day. So inspired by your passion, grit, determination and willingness to leave it all out there on the playing field for this great country. As we discuss in the new With Dems presentation, when democracy calls Democrats answer, and that is what all of you are doing now - answering democracy’s call, powerfully!
10% Off Annual Hopium Membership in June - As a token of my gratitude for all that you are doing, I’m now offering a 10% discount on annual paid subscriptions for new subscribers through the end of the month. Click on this link to subscribe today. On that link you can also purchase gift or group subscriptions for others you’d like bring into the Hopium community. If you signed up as a paid subscriber in the first half of last year and want to make sure your paid subscription is current and up to date check be sure to visit here.
My stretch goal is to get to 10,000 paid subscribers by June 30th. We are within range of hitting that target as we are now almost at 9,900! These funds will put Hopium in a financial place to close out this election strong.
I’m Getting Back Together Tomorrow With Tom Bonier Today in Tyson’s Corner, With The Great Jessica Craven Too! - I’ll be speaking in person at Network NOVA’s 8th Annual Women’s Summit today in Tyson’s Corner, VA with my buddy Tom Bonier and the inspiring Jessica Craven. Hope to see DC area Hopium folks there. Use promo code “Hopium” to get a 15% discount. More info, register here.
This will be the first time Tom and I have been together in person in quite a while - come join us!
Keep working hard all. As I often say, there will be good days and bad days. Just need to keep our heads down now and go out and win this election, together. To borrow from the Women’s Summit this weekend - “It’s Up To Us.”
With much love and gratitude - Simon
I’m frustrated that I am not seeing anywhere, other than Dr. Richardson’s letter post debate, that Trump literally admitted being in bed with Putin. He knew Putin’s plans (aka “dreams) for Ukraine. This to me is the most critical outcome of this debate (of which there should be no more). Where is this being reported?? It seems like a dangerous statement from a presidential candidate.
I am relieved to hear that the debate had little significant effect on the polls. I am not surprised at the low numbers who watched. Thank you for posting Lawrence O'Donnell's remarks.
As I read comments on the substacks and newspapers about the call for Biden to step aside because his age is showing (e.g. NYT Editorial Board), I consider this fact. Joe Biden's motivation to remain in office is not about power or to prevent himself from going to jail or pay fines for crimes he has been convicted for as is true for his opponent. Instead , he is motivated by a drive to serve his country and its people. In addition, e has been very deliberate in choosing his team. He has excellent people administering the agencies which benefits every America. That is why he should not step aside. It would only leave a void. Remember 1968.