Afternoon/morning all. I spoke this morning at the Principles First 2025 Summit here in DC. I ended up staying and talking to folks there - including members of the Hopium Community!!!!! - a little longer than expected so today’s Hopium’s post is a little late and a little shorter than usual. Here is a short clip Principles First released from my talk:
Here’s where I think where we are a month into the terrible Trump Presidency - Trump has overplayed a weak hand and is breaking way too many things, his poll numbers are dropping, he keeps losing in court, federalism still matters, the markets are getting spooked and people are starting to rise up. The opposition movement we all need is starting come together, and I think folks are starting to realize that we all have more power to fight these guys than we understood.
Let’s start with the polling and consumer sentiment. The new University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey released yesterday was just brutal for Trump:
Consumer sentiment extended its early month decline, sliding nearly 10% from January. The decrease was unanimous across groups by age, income, and wealth. All five index components deteriorated this month, led by a 19% plunge in buying conditions for durables, in large part due to fears that tariff-induced price increases are imminent. Expectations for personal finances and the short-run economic outlook both declined almost 10% in February, while the long-run economic outlook fell back about 6% to its lowest reading since November 2023. While sentiment fell for both Democrats and Independents, it was unchanged for Republicans, reflecting continued disagreements on the consequences of new economic policies.
Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped up from 3.3% last month to 4.3% this month, the highest reading since November 2023 and marking two consecutive months of unusually large increases. The current reading is now well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations rose over the course of the month and climbed from 3.2% in January to 3.5% in February. This is the largest month-over-month increase seen since May 2021. For both short- and long-run inflation expectations, this month’s increases were widespread and seen across income and age groups.
Trump is now looking at some of the lowest consumer sentiment recored in this survey in the last 33 years, and he is also far, far below where he was in his first term.
The idea that Trump means higher prices and a slower economy is starting to take hold in the electorate. It is turning people against him, and the markets are getting spooked.
As I wrote on Thursday this week’s polling was also really rough for him. To recap here are the swings a new CNN poll found in Trump’s job approval from last month:
Overall 55-45 - (+10) to 47-52 (-5) - a 15 point swing
18-34 y/o - 57-43 (+14) to 41-57 (-16) - a 30 point swing!
People of Color - 45-54 (-9) to 36-62 (-26) - a 17 point swing
Indies 49-51 - (-2) to 43-56 (-13) - an 11 point swing
The CNN poll found broad dissatisfaction with Trump’s lack of results on lowering costs:
Most adults nationwide, 55%, say that Trump has not paid enough attention to the country’s most important problems and 62% feel he has not gone far enough in trying to reduce the price of everyday goods. Sizable shares across party lines share the latter view, including 47% of Republicans, 65% of independents and 73% of Democrats. In CNN’s January polling, the economy eclipsed all other issues as Americans’ top concern.
In the New Republic today Greg Sargent writes about a new polling memo from Trump’s own pollster:
The memo’s key findings are that 59 percent of voters in 18 swing districts (House - essentially those 17 we are targeting here) are “worried about their personal financial situation,” and that Democrats are leading in the House generic ballot matchup by five points. As the memo delicately notes, “Republicans have to play catch up.” Trump’s approval in these districts is 47-49, two points underwater.
All that adds up to bad news, especially coming from pollster Tony Fabrizio, a chief architect of Trump’s 2024 victory. Indeed, according to Politico, which first reported on the memo, vulnerable Republicans are taking it very seriously.
What’s more, in these swing districts, a whopping 80 percent favor extending the Affordable Care Act subsidies for health insurance that Democrats expanded in 2021 and will expire this year. The memo tells Republicans that extending those subsidies would demonstrate that they support the working class, who are overwhelmingly aided by these subsidies.
Meanwhile, the poll shows that majorities oppose cutting taxes on corporations. It finds that 63 percent say their top priority for tax policy is helping “working-class families,” versus one percent—no, really, one percent—who say it’s helping corporations and the wealthiest Americans.
In short, what Fabrizio’s memo really says is this: Swing voters still feel financially precarious, even though Trump keeps commanding them to think they’re scoring “WINS!” under his glorious leadership. And fiscal policy that takes money from lower-income and working people to help finance lower taxes for corporations and the wealthy will be unpopular in these swing House districts. The memo essentially warns Republicans to stand for prioritizing lower-income and working Americans, not corporations.
As we discussed yesterday we are seeing Republicans now speaking out against the The Mad “Russia First” King on his budget plans; on Russia-Ukraine and the abandonment of Europe/NATO; on the savagery of Musk’s assault on the US government and his outrageous treatment of hundreds of thousands of working Americans; and his unconstitutional usurpation of Congress’s power. We are seeing Republicans getting roasted in the few town hall meetings they’ve held. Yesterday we saw Governor Janet Mills of Maine challenging the Mad King in person, at the White House. The video is above, and just listen to how batshit crazy Trump sounds here. I really think he has gone mad, bonkers, completely mad.
Here is what Dr. Timothy Snyder posted on Bluesky this morning:
Something is shifting. They are still breaking things and stealing things. And they will keep trying to break and to steal. But the propaganda magic around the oligarchical coup is fading. (1/2)
Nervous Musk, Trump, Vance have all been outclassed in public arguments these last few days. Government failure, stock market crash, and dictatorial alliances are not popular. People are starting to realize that there is no truth here beyond the desire for personal wealth and power. (2/2)
Look at this - the NYT is now using very blunt, aggressive language!
As I wrote this week little cracks can become big cracks, and little wins can become big ones. We had wins this week. And we need to rest up, build on our modest momentum and keep working it as hard as we possibly can next week. For my friends we are Americans. Fighting for freedom and democracy is what we do. It is who we are. And our work is making a difference, and we just have to keep our heads down and keep working it everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Let’s Get To Work!!!! - Here are my current working recommendations for calls/contacts this week. Four today, and thanks to all of you who are busting your ass right now:
Keep calling to stop Musk’s crime spree and assault on the US government. Encourage your Senators and Reps to let Facts be be submitted to a candid world and criminal referrals filed for him and his malicious posse to DOJ/FBI; insist Senators and Reps file amicus briefs in the court cases regarding the usurpation of their Constitutional authorities or file suits of their own; encourage them to hold a daily morning press conference to more aggressively challenge Musk’s ransacking of the USG that is making America less prosperous, less healthy, less safe and far less respected in the world.
For those of you who live in AZ, CA, CO, IA, MI, NE, NJ, NY, PA, VA, WI please start talking to your local orgs - state and local Democratic parties, grassroots groups, traditional Dem allies - about mounting a campaign targeting the most vulnerable 17 Republican House Members to urge them to vote against the emerging - and disastrous - House budget plan. We launched this new effort on Monday, and while we should be urging all our Senators and Reps to vote against these emerging plans, those of you can work these 17 House Rs have a special role to play in the coming battle over the budget. As we saw on Thursday House Rs are wavering on this terrible House budget bill and their polling is telling them to vote it down. Need to keep working!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Keep calling Attorneys General in the states. Ask them to protect you and your data, tax returns and privacy, and to keep federally mandated monies flowing to your states and communities. For those in the 19 states that brought the successful Treasury suit thank them and encourage them to keep going. I still believe these 19 states should make criminal referrals of Musk/his posse to DOJ/FBI and raise the stakes.
Let your electeds know you are outraged by traitorous Trump’s selling out of Zelenskyy, abandonment of Europe and embrace of Putin; and that we cannot accept this level of appeasement of someone who is a clear enemy of America and the West, and certainly not an ally. Demand that Trump not let his Saudi meeting w/Putin become our Munich; demand that he not become our Neville Chamberlain.
Paid subscribers should self-report their actions today in our daily chat. So inspired by how hard so many of you are working. I want to make a special plea to all Hopium readers in states with Republican Senators - please make your calls, every day. Even 50 to 100 people calling every day in every red state can make a difference. We have hundreds of Hopium subscribers in every state in the country and it’s critical that we all do our part now.
A note - while physical protests and rallies are a vital part of how we build our new opposition movement, make sure you only attend or promote events by organizations you know and trust. Please do not support any action - boycott, protest, rally, etc - unless you know and trust the organizers. Given the import of our work now I don’t think it wise or advisable to lend our support to newly formed, opaque organizations without a proven track record of working with Democratic groups and leaders.
For those wanting to do more traditional political/campaign work we have three Hopium-backed efforts we're rallying behind right now:
Help Susan Crawford and Ben Wikler in Wisconsin - As a way of honoring our good friend Ben Wikler and supporting this critical April Supreme Court race in Wisconsin, I’m asking our community to donate to the Wisconsin Democratic Party today. The money raised here will make sure Ben has the resources he needs to keep his team in place so they can support this critical statewide race. I know many of you are already deeply involved here - thank you all.
Watch our new discussion with Susan and Ben and thanks to a huge surge of support in recent days we have already raised $78,000, blowing past our $50,000 goal. We are now upping this to a stretch goal of $100,000 by March 31st. Amazing work everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Help Get Ken Martin Off To A Strong Start - In this time of extraordinary challenge we need a strong DNC. Two weeks ago we set a goal of raising $100,000 by March 31st for our new Chair. Incredibly, over 1,000 of you have donated over $88,000 so far. Watch my interview with Ken about what he wants to do with the DNC, and chip in whatever you can to help Ken and the new exciting team at the DNC get off to a strong start. We now have a new stretch goal of $150,000 by March 31st after our very strong start for this effort (note that we did have some money clawed back due to an error in the amount someone gave!)
Help Abigail Spanberger Win Virginia - Virginia will be one of the big battlegrounds of the November, 2025 elections and we have a great candidate for Governor, Abigail Spanberger. Watch my interview with Abigail, donate, volunteer, and learn more here. Given how many federal employees live in Virginia, this race is also now on the front lines of the Trump/Musk assault on the federal government. We’ve raised more than $44,000 so far towards our March 31st goal of $100,000 - thank you all. Let’s keep working it for Abigail!
More Things To Do - Dive into my recent interviews with folks who are making a difference. Check out our upcoming events. Register for my March 5th event with Heather Cox Richardson!
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon
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