The VP Visits North Carolina, The Bluing Of The Southwest, Winning It In October, Working From Joy

It's Time Now Folks. The Election Is Here. Donate, Volunteer, Vote Early And Let's Go Win This Thing, Together!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Happy Sunday all. The Vice President returned to North Carolina yesterday and got this greeting from Governor Roy Cooper:

The Biden-Harris Administration is busting their ass to help the communities impacted by Helene. The other side is doing everything they can to make that harder. Here is how one of the most influential news organizations in North Carolina addressed the rapist, fraudster, traitor, 34 times felon and vile proprogandist:

In recent days we’ve talked about how this last month of this campaign will be very different from the last month of American Presidential campaigns going back many decades. Without the typical October Presidential debates the campaign and all of us are going to have to do much more to keep generating intensity and keep bringing our candidates and messages to voters. The Harris campaign has been forced to do so many news things, all at once. Now they have to invent a new final sprint, one that does not have Presidential debates as their anchor.

They are doing so in at least two ways - highly targeted and state specific paid media and a new round of traditional and new media interviews. Here’s a new ad targeting rural voters in the Midwest (to follow the flood of new ads and watch their campaign events live subscribe to the Harris-Walz YouTube channel):

Here’s the NYT on the innovative media tour the campaign is undertaking this week (note the emphasis on voting early!!!!):

Vice President Kamala Harris will engage in a media blitz this week, sitting for a series of mostly friendly interviews as her campaign shifts into exhorting her supporters to make sure they cast their votes.

The increased exposure on television, radio and podcasts comes with less than one month until Election Day as voters in several battleground states receive their absentee ballots in the mail.

Ms. Harris’s campaign announced on Sunday that she would appear on Tuesday on ABC’s “The View”; Howard Stern’s satellite radio program; and “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert.”

Ms. Harris and her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, had generally avoided news media interviews for weeks after she replaced President Biden as the Democratic nominee and added Mr. Walz to the ticket.

Last month, Ms. Harris’s top aides said she would soon embark on a robust media tour, though one unlikely to place her in front of many aggressive inquisitors. Her campaign, like that of former President Donald J. Trump, believes that the traditional strategy of interviews with broadcast networks and national newspapers is outdated and not worth the accompanying risks, because swing voters tend to get their political news from less traditional sources.

Indeed, Ms. Harris’s first cable television sit-down was with Stephanie Ruhle of MSNBC, a friendly face who days earlier had expressed her preference for Ms. Harris over Mr. Trump.

Likewise, many of those interviewing Ms. Harris this week have openly backed either her or Mr. Biden.

Mr. Colbert hosted fund-raisers for Mr. Biden in 2020 and again this year. Mr. Stern endorsed Mr. Biden in 2020 and hosted him for a warm interview in April.

Mr. Walz will appear on Tuesday on ABC’s “Jimmy Kimmel Live.” Mr. Kimmel last month endorsed Ms. Harris for president.

Ms. Harris’s campaign had already announced that she and Mr. Walz would appear in an interview with the CBS News program “60 Minutes” that is set to air on Monday night. The campaign had also said that Ms. Harris would participate on Thursday in a Univision town-hall event in Las Vegas.

The vice president has also recorded an interview on Call Her Daddy, a popular podcast about sex, dating and relationships. The interview, which focuses on abortion rights and other women’s issues, is set to be released on Sunday evening.

Both Ms. Harris and Mr. Walz will campaign on Wednesday in Arizona on the first day of the state’s early voting period. Ms. Harris will return to Arizona for an event on Friday.

At each of her stops, Ms. Harris is expected to urge supporters to return their ballots without delay, an exhortation she made on Friday during a rally in Flint, Mich.

“If you have received your ballot, please do not wait,” Ms. Harris said. “Fill it out and return it today.” She added, “Folks, the election is here.”

Here’s the latest national early vote tally via TargetEarly. Learn more about how I am going to use this data in the coming days here. So far, so good, people.

Early voting begins in Arizona this week and there will be a great deal of attention on the Southwest. I am quoted at length in a terrific new look at our Democratic gains in the Southwest by Paul Kane in the Washington Post, a party wide project I was instrumental in launching 22 years ago. Here are some excerpts:

Once the leading edge of Western conservatism, four states in the Southwest have shifted over the last two decades to become a Democratic firewall, giving the party a fighter’s chance of keeping the Senate majority and bolstering their presidential prospects.

Ahead of the 2004 elections, six of the eight senators from this region — encompassing Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico — were Republicans. All four states went on to support George W. Bush’s reelection. Today, Democrats hold all eight Senate seats from those four states, each of which supported Joe Biden over Donald Trump in the 2020 elections, the first time a Democrat won all four since 1936.

Democrats are favored to win Senate races in Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico next month, which would help narrow the amount of defense they must play as they try to cling to a 51-49 majority in the chamber. Party operatives are hopeful that these potentially large victories will provide some reverse coattails to boost Vice President Kamala Harris to another sweep of the region’s electoral votes.

The Southwest’s transformation has been incredibly important to helping Democrats offset their losses in heavily rural states. In 2004, for example, Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota sent five Democrats and one Republican to the Senate, a ratio that is exactly reversed in 2024……

“It’s probably the single-most successful regional or geographic strategy for the Democratic Party in a generation,” said Simon Rosenberg, a leading party operative of the last 30 years……

This region’s political metamorphosis is the result of strategic appeals by Democrats to win over the increasingly critical bloc of Hispanic voters. And in recent years local GOP activists, preferring candidates who are Trump loyalists like Lake, have driven more electable candidates to the political sidelines…..

Indeed, for more than a century, the West proved fertile ground for Republicans supporting free trade and a strong national defense. The party’s presidential nominees included many whose careers blossomed out West: Herbert Hoover (1928), Richard M. Nixon (1960, 1968, 1972) and Ronald Reagan (1980, 1984) from California; Goldwater (1964) and McCain (2008) from Arizona.

By contrast, Harris is the first Democratic presidential nominee whose career started west of the Rocky Mountains.

The recent Democratic shift seemed unthinkable in the early 2000s, when Bush, who served as governor in nearby Texas and spoke pretty good Spanish, found big support there.

Not only did Republicans hold six of the eight Senate seats in 2004, the GOP held 15 of the 21 House seats from Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.

But Democrats, in a slow and steady campaign, began to chip away at the GOP’s dominance, first winning the governor’s race in New Mexico in 2002 and flipping a Senate seat in Colorado in 2004.

Those candidates, Bill Richardson (D-N.M.) and Ken Salazar (D-Colo.), became the first wave of the long-game effort to appeal to younger and more diverse voters who were starting to dominate these states. Rosenberg found acolytes in a couple of young Democratic activists named Jared Polis and Ruben Gallego.

Polis is now in his second term as Colorado’s governor and Rep. Gallego (Ariz.), after 10 years in the House, is running for Senate and has led Lake in every public poll, some by double-digit margins.

After Bush won Nevada again in 2004, Senate Minority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) began a long overhaul of the state’s Democratic operations, placing his loyal lieutenants in charge and recruiting more women and Latino activists to enter politics.

Nevada has voted for the Democratic nominee in four straight presidential campaigns. Democrats have won three straight Senate races, including the 2022 reelection of Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), first recruited by Reid to run for state attorney general in 2006. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), recruited by Reid to run for Congress in 2016, is favored to win a second six-year term in November.

Over the last 10 years Democrats have won 12 of the last 14 Senate races in these four states — which now have 14 Democrats and 10 Republicans in the House. A couple of potential gains next month in Arizona could vault Democrats back into the House majority.

New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada rank among the top five states with regard to percentage of Hispanic population, but Republicans have fared better with that voting bloc in recent elections. According to a Pew Research Center study, in the 2022 midterms, 60 percent of Hispanic voters chose a Democrat for Congress, down from 72 percent in 2018, while GOP support grew from 25 percent to 39 percent.

Some public polling suggests Trump and Republicans could reduce that margin again this year, explaining why public polling shows Trump and Harris essentially tied in Arizona and Nevada.

But Rosenberg predicted that, with the overall size of the Hispanic vote continuing to grow, it will yield more raw votes for Harris.

One Pew study found that there are 4 million more eligible Hispanic voters than just four years ago. In 2000, when Hispanics delivered 62 percent of their vote for Al Gore, they made up just 7.4 percent of eligible voters, according to Pew. This year they will make up close to 15 percent of eligible voters.

Harris can afford a slight drop from the 65 percent support Biden received from Hispanics, because there are more votes to be had.

“A slightly smaller piece of a bigger pie is still a bigger pie,” Rosenberg said…..

The last Republican to win a Senate race in the Southwest was McCain, in 2016. Early last month his son, Jimmy McCain, endorsed Harris and his daughter, Meghan McCain, has carried out a public feud with Lake.

“We don’t have a majority in the United States without the bluing of the Southwest,” Rosenberg said.

More Hopium 2024 Election Analysis:

• Two new talks - my latest take on the 2024 election recorded Wednesday night, and a new talk on the importance of voting on Day 1 and winning it in October

• Our new Closing Strong episode is live! Be sure to catch our interview with Nebraska Dem Chair Jane Kleb. It is one of my favs of the year. So proud of what Jane and the Dems are in Nebraska are doing this cycle.

• 80 million postcards have begun their journey to voters in battleground districts and states - amazing stuff all!

• Red wave pollsters escalate, drop over 20 polls last week

The Hopium Community Is Doing More, A Whole Lot More, and Worrying Less, A Whole Lot Less!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - We are in October now. Millions of people have already voted. Millions of postcards have begun making their important journey. Without another Presidential debate in the final month our ticket needs other ways to keep generating intensity and interest. That’s why your work, your money, your working your networks matters more than usual. For we have to become the intensity makers. We have to keep talking to voters. We have to keep bringing it, everyday, and help Democrats across the country close strong.

Harris-Walz For President - $1,154,000 raised, $1.5m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | Subscribe to The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel

Our Presidential Checkmate States - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these two front-line state parties:

• North Carolina - $702,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton. We need to keep stepping up for the people of North Carolina!!!!!!

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $425,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego

• Nebraska/Blue Dot - $234,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb. Nebraska has become very important to us this year - please consider donating today!

Winning The House - There are four ways to support our 15 Winning The House candidates:

• Support All 15 With A Single Donation - $1,459,000 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer, Learn More and Watch Interviews With Our Candidates

• Support The 4 New House Candidates In Our Expanded Target List - $62,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More.

• Donate Directly To A Candidate - You can donate to any of our 15 candidates directly here. Let’s do this people!

• Winning The House Thursdays - This week we gather for Sue Altman (NJ-07), Thursday, at 715pm ET. Register here to postcard or call for Sue, a great candidate. Learn how you can postcard and call for our candidates every day, not just on Thursdays here. We had a big crowd on Thursday for Adam Gray - thank you all!

Keeping The Senate Blue - By popular demand, we are now supporting Senators Tester and Brown in addition to Ruben Gallego. If you want to help defeat Deb Fischer in Nebraska give to the great Nebraska Dem Party today!

• Montana/Jon Tester - $107,000 raised, $200,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More. We’ve blown through our $100,00 goal and are now shooting for $200,000!

• Ohio/Sherrod Brown - $73,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $425,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego

• Nebraska/Blue Dot - $234,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb. Nebraska has become very important to us this year - please consider donating today!

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Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon