The War Resumes, Oil Prices Surge, Trump's Poll Numbers Continue To Suck - And Now We Must Fight His Escalating Illiberalism With Everything We Got

I'm hosting Brian Tyler Cohen today live at 415pm ET. We will be talking about his new book, the current moment and more.....join us!

Morning all. Commentator Brian Tyler Cohen is joining us today at 415pm ET to talk about our current moment and his new book, The Day After: How to Wield Power in a Post-Trump World. Join us live at 415pm by clicking on this link. Going to be a good one!

This morning we learned that in June The Consumer Price Index, our primary gauge of inflation, fell by 0.4% - good news. Despite this drop inflation has risen over the past year by 3.5%, still far above the Fed’s target rate of 2% annually. This drop in inflation came largely from falling oil prices, but here’s what happening to those falling oil prices this week due to Trump’s failed war continuing to fail:

With these June numbers here’s Trump’s updated and ugly inflation track record:

Here’s the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment over the past 65 years. Despite modest improvement in recent weeks it remains the worst ever recorded in this survey:

This morning’s Civics daily job approval tracker is the worst for Trump of the cycle, perhaps impacted by the resumption of the war and further confirmation of Trump’s historically terrible leadership:

G. Elliott Morris has published an interesting new analysis this morning that finds that “double haters” - those voters who dislike both parties - are both growing as a percentage of the overall electorate and “consolidating behind Democrats”:

So, yes, inflation got better in June but so far there has been no meaningful improvement for Trump and the Rs in any of the consumer/electoral data available to us, and they remain on track to lose at least one, if not both, of the Congressional chambers this November.

I also think this improvement in the inflation data should encourage Democrats to far more aggressively open up that “second front” we’ve talked about here, one that focuses on corruption/threats to democracy/rights and freedoms/No Kings and Trump’s clear intention to prevent a free and fair election and a peaceful transfer of power in November. Over the weekend I wrote about how moving beyond “kitchen table issues” and opening up that second front is not just the right thing to do it is what our voters want from us this cycle and doing so will make it more likely we win:

More Notes On The Importance Of Character In The 2026 Elections

This week we have an extraordinary opportunity to create a clear and powerful contrast with our patriotic politics and their betrayal of America through the Blanche and Clayton hearings that begin tomorrow; through challenging ICE to reform and stop murdering people on our streets; through standing up to whatever it is Trump is going to attempt to do on Thursday night in his speech to the nation:

Yesterday, a federal judge, Kathleen Williams, issued a powerful ruling on Trump’s deeply corrupt “settlement” with the IRS that would in any healthy democracy immediately disqualify Blanche and cause him to step aside:

A federal judge on Monday denounced President Donald Trump’s lawsuit against the IRS as an improper attempt to “manipulate” the court process and legitimize a controversial deal that afforded him significant tax protections and sought to establish a nearly $1.8 billion fund for alleged victims of politicized prosecutions.

In a blistering ruling, U.S. District Judge Kathleen M. Williams suggested that Trump’s attorneys and top Justice Department officials who signed off on that agreement could face professional sanctions. She barred them from citing any provision of their private resolution in future official proceedings.

“In sum,” the judge wrote, “the facts before this Court demonstrate that there was never adverseness between the Parties; there was never a case or controversy; and there was never a question as to who would prevail.”

The extraordinary order from Williams, an appointee of President Barack Obama, came in response to concerns raised by 35 former federal judges, who had petitioned her to reexamine the deal the Justice Department struck with Trump in May to resolve the suit he filed earlier this year over the leak of his personal tax returns by a government contractor.

They argued that the suit was improper and the deal to resolve it was negotiated in bad faith as attorneys on both sides of the case ultimately reported to Trump — working for him either in his personal capacity or as government employees at the Justice Department.

The NYT has just published a story about Blanche’s shocking lawlessness based on newly released internal DOJ emails: (gift link)

Mr. Blanche’s cooperation in Mr. Trump’s retribution campaign, both as deputy attorney general and acting attorney general since the ouster in April of his predecessor, Pam Bondi, is his defining characteristic, in the view of critics. It will be a flashpoint in Mr. Blanche’s testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee.

“Todd Blanche oversaw senior Justice Department officials pursuing politically charged investigations, convened recurring meetings of the so-called weaponization working group, and committed departmental resources to advancing President Trump’s efforts targeting political opponents, election administration and other high-profile vendettas,” said Chioma Chukwu, executive director of American Oversight, which obtained the documents through the Freedom of Information Act.

As I’ve written I fear that we are now, this week, at a very critical moment in our fight for our democracy and must fully engage here. The confirmation of Blanche and Clayton, despite their lawlessness and corruption, would be a dramatic escalation in Trump’s efforts to keep Republicans in power at all costs, for it would give him ever more powerful tools; and that Trump is going ahead with this insane gambit on Thursday night is another sign of how desperate, unhinged, and dangerous he has become. The return of the war, surging oil prices and that inflation dropping has not revived his poll numbers all give him only one path now - he cannot allow free and fair elections or a peaceful transfer of power. He’s made up his mind. He’s just going for it - that is now clear. So, what are we going to do about it, people?

In our internal family chatter there as those who tell us to “pivot” from other issues back to costs. This counsel implies that these other issues are of lesser importance than “costs,” rather than being important in their own right. This unwise counsel in my view has contributed to us not having opened up and sustained that “second front,” for it creates a “strategic” justification for not leaning into fighting Trump’s escalating illiberalism. And this strategic advice in my view has hurt us, made us slow to challenge his illiberalism, made us smaller and weaker, not bigger and stronger - for we can be warriors for working people and proud patriots fighting passionately for our country and our democracy. It’s not a choice, it is and must be both.

It’s why Job One, Job Two, Job Three this week is to call and call and call and demand that our Congressional leaders fight and reject Blanche and Clayton. This is a big one peeps. Let us, as this community has so many times before, answer the call when our country needs us most…….

Let’s Make Our Calls And Support Our Battleground Candidates And Party Committees Too!!!!!!!!

Winning The House and Senate In 2026

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign - $972,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.

Friends if these twelve courageous candidates win, the House will flip, even with Callais and their rancid mid-decade redistricting. So eyes on the prize here everyone!

Winning The House - The Second Wave Fund - $172,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | We’ve launched a second House fund, one targeting candidates who’ve recently emerged from primaries or running in new districts. Our initial crew is Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Cait Conley (NY-17), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Denise Powell (NE-02), and Bobby Pulido (TX-15).

A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these seven, and more as other worthy candidates emerge from their primaries. Our total above includes money we’ve raised for directly for each candidate. You can watch interviews with all of seven of these intrepid leaders here. We are off to a great start here everyone!

Our Winning The Senate Fund - $486,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a single donation to our five candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA). The $486,000 figure includes what we’ve raised for these five so far through direct donations to their campaigns. You can watch our interviews with each of these great candidates and/or contribute directly to any of them here.

Expanding The Map - Investing And Winning In Key Battleground And Expansion States

These funds split donations three ways among our candidates for the Senate and Governor, and the State Democratic Party.

Winning Georgia (New) - $250,000 goal - Donate | This new funds split a contribution three ways among Senator Jon Ossoff, gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, and the Georgia Democratic Party and its great Chair, Charlie Bailey.

Winning Iowa - $17,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our Winning Iowa fund splits a contribution three ways - to Josh Turek for Senate, to our gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party and its great chair, Rita Hart.

Winning Maine - $59,800 raised, $75,000 goal - Donate | Right now this fund is only supporting the Maine Democratic Party to help them get through this challenging process of selecting a new Senate nominee but will expand in coming days to include both our gubernatorial candidate, Hannah Pingree, and our eventual Senate nominee too. Thanks to all of you who have rallied for the Maine Dems in the past few days - it’s a big deal! | Watch our new interview with the inspiring Executive Director of the Maine Dems Devon Murphy-Anderson

Winning Ohio - $175,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton-Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party and its terrific Chair, Kathleen Clyde.

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $625,300 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up!

2026 Election Analysis From Hopium

• More Notes On The Importance Of Character In The 2026 Elections

• In Defense Of Vetting

• It’s Time To Move On From The “Democrats Suck” Narrative - It’s Wrong, And We Have An Election To Win

• Trump Is Failing, He Is Wildly Unpopular, The Polls Are Encouraging, And We Have Elections To Win All Across The Country

A Few More Things To Do

Let’s work to make sure everyone you know is Voting Early this year, and learn more about how our political battlefield is evolving this cycle; bring our Resolutions Project to your community; and fight for Hopium’s Agenda today and everyday!

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Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and elections all across this great country to win, together! - Simon