Vice President Harris Is Working Hard, Lifting Us Up And Closing Strong
Friends, we are winning this election, but have not won it - yet!!!!!!! Need to keep working hard and closing strong in these final 6 days....
Happy Wednesday all. 6 days of hard work left until victory. I ask two things of you today:
Make sure you have voted. Voting early helps our campaigns move on to lower propensity voters earlier, helps us grow our vote, and helps us win. Please vote early today if you have not yet. It’s really important.
Volunteer for the Harris-Walz campaign. Here’s the official volunteer link. We need to leave it all out there on the playing field in these final 6 days and go win this thing, together.
There is one primary story today - the Vice President’s historic event at the Ellipse last night. Please watch this video, watch again and share. The crowds were enormous, the energy, excitement incredible. Her speech was powerful, optimistic, necessary. “Not just get by, but get ahead.” I was lucky enough to be there, and it was glorious.
My friends - we are closing strong, together.
Today’s campaign schedule. Note the love North Carolina is getting today!
Vice President Harris will host Get Out the Vote rallies in Raleigh, North Carolina and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, before heading to Madison, Wisconsin for a “When We Vote We Win” rally and concert. Musical performances will include artists Gracie Abrams, Mumford & Sons, Remi Wolf, and The National’s Matt Berninger and Aaron Dessner.
Governor Tim Walz will join Good Morning America and CBS Mornings. In the afternoon, Governor Walz will participate in a series of political events in Charlotte and Greensboro, North Carolina, to encourage North Carolinians to vote early for Vice President Harris and Democrats up and down the ballot. In the evening, Governor Walz will deliver remarks at a Harris-Walz campaign event in Asheville, North Carolina.
Second Gentleman Emhoff will deliver remarks, rallying students with Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas and later at a volunteer phone bank in North Las Vegas.
Mrs. Walz will appear on the CBS daytime talk show The Talk at 2 p.m. ET. She will discuss her experiences crisscrossing the country campaigning for the Harris-Walz ticket, her personal fertility journey, and what’s at stake for reproductive freedom in this election.
The 2024 Election - We Are Winning The Election But Have Not Won It Yet - Here is Harris-Walz Campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon’s week out state of the race update. It is important that everyone watch this and yes do more and worry less in the final six days:
Here’s my rough calculation of national polls released since Monday, October 14th broken down by independent polls and those affiliated with right-wing and Republican organizations.
Independent Polls Harris +2.5
538 Natl Average Harris +1.4
Right-Aligned Polls Trump +0.9 (3.4 points more Trump than independent polls)
Here are the independent polls we’ve received since Sunday:
Harris 51%-47% (+4) ABC/Ipsos
Harris 51%- 47% (+4) CCES/YouGov
Harris 50%-46% (+4) Clarity Labs
Harris 50%-47% (+3) Morning Consult
Harris 49%-46% (+3) Noble Predictive (a GOP firm - I will take it)
Harris 49%-47% (+2) Economist/YouGov
Harris 49%-47% (+2) Angus Reid
Harris 49%-47% (+2) FAU/Mainstreet
Harris 50%-49% (+1) CBS/You Gov
Here is today’s Washington Post more highly curated battleground state polling averages. While it is close, we win this election. This data is very close to CBS’s current projections which also have Harris winning the Electoral College.
Where is the election today? I still think we are up by 2-4 points and in a stronger position in the Electoral College - despite what the averages and forecasters say. The VP is far better liked, and likeable, something that matters late breaking voters. We’ve closed the gap on the economy with Trump - a huge campaign achievement. A flurry of red wave polls pushed the polling averages down in the past few weeks and tipped them to Trump - illegitimately in my view. Since late August 31 right-affiliated organizations have released close to 100 polls into the averages. Read more about this illicit effort in this recent New Republic article, my recent post and catch Trump admitting that some of these red wave polls showing him ahead are fraudulent.
In the past few days greater MAGA has begun a new, intense effort to flood the battleground state polls in a desperate attempt to show momentum for Trump at the end. The real battleground state polls have been largely good for us this week, as you can see in the WaPo aggregate above. Here is what the Economist wrote this morning (this model includes more red wave polls than the WaPo):
“Kamala Harris’ probability of victory rose by six percentage points in today’s update, making the race a dead heat. The move is sharp because of the large volume of new polls (65 yesterday) and how little time is left before the election.”
“Ms Harris’s gains are concentrated in the Rust Belt, where surveys showed her with a slight lead in Michigan and Wisconsin and tied in Pennsylvania. She also improved her chances of winning North Carolina, where Donald Trump has a narrow lead.”
CNN has released 5 battleground state polls in the last 24 hours. And note that CNN’s last national poll had the national popular vote tied:
Michigan - Harris 48%-43% (+5)
Wisconsin - Harris 51%-46% (+6)
Arizona - Harris 48%-47% (+1)
Pennsylvania - Harris 48%-48% (tied)
Nevada - Harris 47%-48% (-1)
Our daily reminder:
Rs would only be working so hard to shape the national narrative to make it look like Trump is winning if they believed he wasn’t. These red wave polls are a sign of desperation, weakness and campaign that knows it is losing.
Heading into the final week we should be pleased with what we are seeing in the early vote. Using TargetEarly we know today that despite a huge new Republican commitment to the early vote we are running even with them compared to 2020 in the battleground states, and are consistently running 6-7 points better in the battlegrounds than the national early vote. This meaningful overperformance of the national early vote in the battlegrounds is similar to what we saw in 2022 and a sign of the strength and superiority of our ground game and our ability to create two elections. We are running ahead of our 2020 early vote results in GA, MI, NE-2 and WI. That’s really good. While Rs got off to a strong start in the sunbelt, we are closing the gap vs. 2020 in AZ, NC, NV - another sign of our organizational strength. In PA it is clear that many have chosen to skip the mail-only system and vote on Election Day so the early vote data isn’t all that helpful there this year. We are doing fine so far, but PA is going to be an Election Day state, like the old days.
Taking a step back, right now Dems are matching our 2020 results in the battlegrounds despite the battleground electorate being older, whiter, more male and more rural than at this point in 2020. This is really good. Additionally, we are starting to see large Harris leads in polls of those who have voted early, 20+ points. So we are 20+ points in an electorate that is only currently +2.5 Dem, and 7 points more R than 2020. It’s all very encouraging for us, and suggests there has been a meaningful surge of Republicans and independents voting for Harris in the early vote so far.
Republicans are not winning or ahead in the early vote in the battlegrounds. We are ahead of 2020 in 4 states, catching up in 3 and competitive in PA. It’s trench warfare out there in the early vote my friends. We just have to keep working hard, keep closing strong and keep making this election bluer each day.
Here’s my contribution to a recent Washington Post article on how the migration of college-educated voters, particularly women, to Democrats has not only given us more voters in critical parts of the country, they have helped contribute to the biggest and most powerful campaigns - including all of you - we’ve ever had:
“The migration of higher-income, higher-educated voters in the Democratic Party is not only going to be very significant in terms of voters in the battleground states. Their money is helping supercharge all of our campaigns all across the country,” said Simon Rosenberg, a leading Democratic Party operative. “This is among the more consequential things that’s happened in American politics in recent years, because Democrats are not used to living in a world where we dramatically outspend Republicans.”
More 2024 election analysis:
Recent posts on the most powerful force in US politics today - the ugliness of MAGA and the Democratic grassroots is our superpower.
Watch my Thursday night appearance on Alex Wagner’s MSNBC show. Alex, Dan Pfeiffer and I had a great discussion about the election - polling, the early vote, and the big story that just broke about Elon Musk’s illicit and dangerous relationship with Vladimir Putin.
My new video presentation and Hopium post on the election. The video and post are a very comprehensive deep dive on where things stand and are well worth your time.
Our new Closing Strong episode with Nevada Senator Cortez Masto talking about why she thinks we will win there despite the early noise, a really interesting look at the third party vote (or lack thereof), and Tara and I do our regular roundup of the week’s electoral developments. Strongly recommend for those who want to go deeper into the Nevada early vote.
Tom Bonier and I are doing a live presentation on the election tonight at 645pm ET for our Hopium subscribers. If you are a paid subscriber you can register here. If you are not yet a paid subscriber and want to join us subscribe here.
Doing More And Worrying Less/Working Hard And Closing Strong In The Home Stretch - 6 days of voting left everyone - let’s keep working it!
My one big ask today - donate to and volunteer for Harris-Walz. Beating the fascists remains job 1 today and every day until victory.
I want to thank all of you who are self-reporting on all your remarkable work across the country. Postcards, canvassing, back yard phonebank parties - you all are doing the work we need to do to win. For when the Hopium community is called - you answer! Thank you all.
Some have asked - are donations this late useful? Yes they are. My advice is that whatever you are going to give this year give it this weekend. The earlier they get the money the more useful it is to the campaign. Late money goes directly into augmenting paid advertising and reaching more voters. So yes it matters. Let’s keep working it people!
Harris-Walz, Our Presidential Checkmate States and Wisconsin - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these three front-line state parties:
Harris-Walz, The Mothership - $1,369,000 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | Subscribe to The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel and watch her inspiring rallies live
North Carolina - $1,007,000 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $610,000 raised, $700,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego
Wisconsin Dem Party - $118,000 raised, $200,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Watch Our Recent Closing Strong Interview with the great Ben Wikler
Nebraska/Blue Dot - $312,000 raised, $300,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb.
Winning The House - Keeping getting very good vibes from our candidates and House Democratic leadership about flipping the House this year. We need to keep working it peeps!
Support All 15 Hopium-Backed Candidates With A Single Donation - $1,808,000 raised, $1,750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer, Learn More and Watch Interviews With Our Candidates (for our higher net worth donors note that you can give up to $49,500 split 15 ways for this group). You can donate to any one of our 15 candidates directly here.
Keeping The Senate Blue - this is a brawl my friends, and we just have to keep working it:
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $610,000 raised, $700,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Montana/Jon Tester - $180,000 raised, $200,000 goal (new stretch goal!) - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Ohio/Sherrod Brown - $125,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Wisconsin Dem Party/Tammy Baldwin - $118,000 raised, $200,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Nebraska/Blue Dot - $311,000 raised, $300,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Growing The Hopium Community - We’ve set some goals for the growth of our community so more of us can be doing more and worrying less in the home stretch:
Hopium Subscribers - 116,730 this morning, 125,000 goal
Paid Subscribers - 13,570 this morning, 14,000 goal
Great work everyone. We are making real progress here. Hopium paid subscribers get access to a weekly live home stretch political briefing and Founding Members will have their own small gathering on Fridays. You can become a paid subscriber and help us hit our goals by clicking on the link below or following this link. The subscription tab includes options for gift and group subscriptions, all 10% off through Election Day!
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you.
Let’s bring it home!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Simon
Just added 3 new CNN polls to my morning post - https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/vice-president-harris-is-working
Harris up 6 in WI, 5 in MI, tied in PA. Yesterday CNN has her up 1 in AZ and down 1 in NV. Encouraging stuff.
Schwarzenegger endorses Kamala Harris
"…I will always be an American before I am a Republican. That’s why, this week, I am voting for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. I’m sharing it with all of you because I think there are a lot of you who feel like I do."
https://nitter.poast.org/Schwarzenegger/status/1851627802027758005#m