Harris-Walz Raising Their Game As The Election Enters Much More Intense Phase, Winning The Early Vote and Making Everyday A Good Day
Staying Focused While Acknowledging The Tragedy Of October 7th And Its Aftermath
Happy, and solemn, Monday all. I wake with a heavy heart today. I also wake determined to channel the deep emotions I have about October 7th and its aftermath into concrete action for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. We have an election to win here, and the stakes could not be higher for our democracy, our freedoms, our future.
The election enters a new and far more intense phase this week as the early vote gets turned on in many consequential states. By the weekend people will be voting in Arizona, California, Indiana, Maine, Mississippi, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Virginia, Vermont and Wyoming. The election is here, and while I think we are winning today, we have not won it yet.
We need to make every day between now and November 5th a good day. A day where we put points on the board for our team, where we make our calls and send our postcards, where we donate whatever pennies we still have left, and make sure that somehow we make today a good one. For the postcarders in the Hopium community note that we have now made it possible to write for any of our 15 candidates any time - not just on Thursdays! You can find that information below and there is no time to waste. Our last postcarding date is October 18th.
As we kick off this very consequential week a reminder that last week we had another unbelievably strong jobs report, and that the country is far better today off due to the vision and determination of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. The President and First Lady updated us this morning on the progress being made in the areas impacted by Helene:
The Harris-Walz campaign understands where we are now and they are raising their game and the intensity level this week. I wrote yesterday about the aggressive media blitz they are on this week - podcasts, TV interviews, 60 Minutes, etc. They candidates will be in Arizona for the start of early voting there. Obama hits the trail Thursday in Pennsylvania.
The first big media moment of this intense week dropped last night. The Vice President appeared on Call Her Daddy, the most popular podcast with women in America. Listen to the whole interview here and watch this short excerpt the show released on YouTube. It is the VP at her very best.
My 19 year old daughter called me - yes called me - to tell me how awesome she thinks it is that Kamala went on this show. It was a sign of respect for her rising generation and was excited to listen and talk it up with friends. This new campaign appears to be off to a very good start!
Politico ran a rather remarkable story yesterday which has Republicans talking about the need to cut into our advantage with the early vote and expressing frustration that Trump is making it much harder for them to do so. Please read this excerpt from the article - it is a validation of our work to drive people to Vote on Day 1 and vote early, and to run up the score and win the election in October:
Republicans are pouring tens of millions of dollars into getting GOP voters to cast ballots before Election Day.
They’re frustrated because Donald Trump keeps getting in the way.
In just the last few weeks, the former president has dismissed early voting as “stupid,” falsely claimed that 20 percent of mail ballots in Pennsylvania are “fraudulent,” suggested mail carriers could “lose hundreds of thousands of ballots, maybe purposefully,” and baselessly accused Democrats of exploiting a program that sends ballots to overseas and military voters to evade citizenship checks.
Trump’s vilification of mail and early voting methods, a key component of his web of stolen-election conspiracy theories, stoked a deep partisan divide that Republicans have spent the better part of the last four years trying to undo. They have also tried on and off since 2020 to persuade Trump himself to embrace early voting.
But with just weeks to go, they have plainly failed to win him over. While Trump has sometimes come around — urging his supporters at rallies, in tele-rallies and through social media posts to take advantage of expanded voting options — Republicans warn his rhetoric is threatening to undermine it all.
“It’s counterproductive,” said David Urban, a former Trump campaign senior adviser who led his successful Pennsylvania effort in 2016. While the former president has occasionally warmed to the issue, Urban said, when “we’re kind of pushing a message, and then the president comes and says, ‘I’m not so big on that,’ it’s much more difficult to convince people.”
Trump’s resurrection of his baseless claims of early and mail voting fraud — one way in which he is laying the groundwork to potentially challenge the results of a second election if he loses — comes as Republicans and GOP-aligned groups wage multimillion-dollar campaigns to get voters in key states to embrace those methods. It’s a massive effort aimed at getting reliable Republican voters to cast ballots early so that the party can redirect resources in the final stretch of the campaign toward winning over lower-propensity voters who could decide a close election.
“The whole idea behind absentee voting is you’re banking that vote, you’ve got that person, you know they’re going to vote for you, you get them off the list,” said Mark Graul, a GOP strategist based in Wisconsin. “This is how you get the extra 5,000, 10,000 votes that may decide the election.” (bold added for emphasis)
And Trump’s scaremongering “screws it up,“ Graul said. “It’s silly.”
Republicans’ early voting efforts have been driven by frustration at the string of electoral losses the party has suffered since 2016 and a recognition that voters are broadly comfortable with mailing or otherwise casting their ballots early.
“For three years, I didn’t like it. But during those three years, we lost elections,” said Tom Eddy, the chair of the GOP in Erie County, Pennsylvania, a bellwether that voted for Barack Obama, Trump and then Joe Biden.
“You have to accept it in order to have a chance to win. And that’s what we’re doing. We’ve been pushing these things like crazy,” Eddy said in an interview.
“We lost elections” by not driving the early vote Republicans admit in this article. Which is why the battle over the early vote this time is going to be so consequential. They know they lost these elections in the early vote, in October, and are determined to not let that happen this time. Which is why we should not be surprised if the early vote is a little more Republican this year than 2020. They are trying much harder. Which is why we have to try much harder too and not let them get an upper hand. We need to be out there right now making our calls, canvassing, donating, being loud and driving our early vote. Here’s the latest data from TargetEarly. So far we are running ahead of 2020 in the early vote, which is good; but it is early, and many more states come on line this week.
Friends, the election is here now, and we need to make everyday a good day.
More Hopium 2024 Election Analysis
Two new talks - my latest take on the 2024 election recorded Wednesday night, and a new talk on the importance of voting on Day 1 and winning it in October
Our new Closing Strong episode is live! Be sure to catch our interview with Nebraska Dem Chair Jane Kleb. It is one of my favs of the year. So proud of what Jane and the Dems are in Nebraska are doing this cycle.
80 million postcards have begun their journey to voters in battleground districts and states - amazing stuff all!
Red wave pollsters escalate, drop over 20 polls last week
The Hopium Community Is Doing More, A Whole Lot More, and Worrying Less, A Whole Lot Less!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - We are in October now. Millions of people have already voted. Millions of postcards have begun making their important journey. Without another Presidential debate in the final month our ticket needs other ways to keep generating intensity and interest. That’s why your work, your money, your working your networks matters more than usual. For we have to become the intensity makers. We have to keep talking to voters. We have to keep bringing it, everyday, and help Democrats across the country close strong.
My one ask today - donate to Harris-Walz. We are bit behind our target now and we need to show this incredible campaign some love as they kick off what is going to be a very consequential week.
Harris-Walz For President - $1,159,000 raised, $1.5m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | Subscribe to The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel
Our Presidential Checkmate States - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these two front-line state parties:
North Carolina - $705,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton. We need to keep stepping up for the people of North Carolina!!!!!!
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $426,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego
Nebraska/Blue Dot - $237,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb. Nebraska has become very important to us this year - please consider donating today!
Winning The House - There are five ways to support our 15 Winning The House candidates:
Support All 15 With A Single Donation - $1,475,000 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer, Learn More and Watch Interviews With Our Candidates
Support The 4 New House Candidates In Our Expanded Target List - $63,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More.
Donate Directly To A Candidate - You can donate to any of our 15 candidates directly here. Let’s do this people!
Winning The House Thursdays - This week we gather for Sue Altman (NJ-07), Thursday, at 715pm ET. Register here to postcard or call for Sue, a great candidate. Watch my wonderful interview with her. We had a big crowd last Thursday for Adam Gray - thank you all!
Our Big New Postcarding Push - see below!
Keeping The Senate Blue - By popular demand, we are now supporting Senators Tester and Brown in addition to Ruben Gallego. If you want to help defeat Deb Fischer in Nebraska give to the great Nebraska Dem Party today!
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $426,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego
Montana/Jon Tester - $111,000 raised, $200,000 goal (new stretch goal!) - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More. We’ve blown through our $100,00 goal and are now shooting for $200,000!
Ohio/Sherrod Brown - $76,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Nebraska/Blue Dot - $237,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb. Nebraska has become very important to us this year - please consider donating today!
Expanding Our Postcarding For Our Winning The House Candidates - The Hopium community has been supporting our “Winning the House” candidates through donations, phone banking and postcard writing.
The next two weeks are our final Winning the House postcard push! In addition to writing postcards on our final two postcard Thursdays (Oct. 10th & 17th), we encourage you to download more addresses on your own and continue writing.
We will continue phone banking for our candidates up to the end. Our final postcard mail date will be October 18, 2024.
If you wrote postcards during one (or more) of our “Winning the House Thursday” evening Zooms, or have written postcards with other groups, we now have addresses available for all 15 candidates supported in this program. This includes the 4 candidates recently added to the WinningTheHouse List.
Sue ALTMAN (New Jersey CD-07)
Christina BOHANNAN (Iowa CD-01)
Janelle BYNUM (Oregon CD-5)
Kirsten ENGEL (Arizona CD-6)
Laura GILLEN (New York CD-04)
Adam GRAY (California CD-13)
Mondaire JONES (New York CD-17)
Josh RILEY (New York CD-19)
Will ROLLINS (California CD-41)
Rudy SALAS (California CD-22)
Amish SHAH (Arizona CD-01)
Janelle STELSON (Pennsylvania CD-10)
Derek TRAN (California CD-45)
Tony VARGAS (Nebraska CD-02)
George WHITESIDES (California CD-27)
To get addresses on your own, visit our address distribution portal WinningtheHouse.com. Here you can customize the number of addresses you download for the candidate/s of your choice.
To get started, if you have not already done so, create your account. You are already approved if you have joined us on a Thursday night. Once you fill out the form, you will receive a confirmation email. Respond to that email and you are all set.
If you are new to our Winning The House postcard program, email WinningTheHouse2024@gmail.com for information about how to get started.
You might notice that some candidates have [Refined List] next to their name. This means you are downloading addresses from a more targeted list than before. For this reason, you won’t see the number of postcards already written for this candidate represented in the new address list.
Join us in helping these important campaigns turn out the early vote!
Grow and Strengthen The Hopium Community - Help grow the Hopium community. Use this link to encourage others sign others up. You can gift a subscription to a friend or student here and get group rates too. From now until Election Day a paid annual Hopium subscription is 10% off. If you have changed credit cards or moved you can update your payment information or check your renewal status by following these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep our community growing and the Hopium flowing! Paid subscribers help keep most of our content free for the 121,000 strong in our community down the home stretch!
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon
I went canvassing yesterday in Adams county PA (near Gettysburg). I recommend this as a canvassing spot for other DC Hopium folks. It’s a beautiful, very Trumpy area with a good local Harris office which is in Gettysburg (and very rewarding and about an hour and a half drive from DC). It was clear that most of the houses and people we saw had not been canvassed in a very long time. One - very nice lady (a long time Dem) - told us, over iced tea (she invited us in!) - that our visit was the first time her door had been knocked in 20 years. This is - IMO - a very good sign that the campaign is organizing in new areas and chasing every vote (and is serious about lowering the margin in rural areas). I’ve never had packets like this before. It also validates what Anderson Clayton is doing in NC with expanding organizing into more rural counties. We met many registered “Democrats” who were no longer with the party (partly because, I assume, there has been no party presence in many years) - some were now independents and some were MAGA. It was clear that our being there mattered to the supporters we met with as this is a place - we were told - where people just don’t talk politics and many of those we spoke with - who we could tell were sympathetic - were unwilling to say who they planned to vote for (they don’t have local support) We could tell we helped activate some voters. It was, at times, nerve wracking (we had a least two interactions with very angry youngish middle aged men, one who yelled at us “you rang my doorbell - how could you think you could do that” and another, at the end of a very long driveway, who threatened to call the police, we missed the “no trespassing sign” super serious in those parts). It’s a very rural area that requires driving and walking down long driveways to front doors that are almost never used. But, it was worth it. The people were mostly lovely and the reward was great (it felt like were were helping to get one or two move votes to the total). Highly recommend.
Just listened to Harris interview with Alex Cooper. I hope this moves audience of millions as much as it did me. Who could ask for a more well spoken, more concise, and empathetic person than Vice President Harris to lead us? Her appearance on this podcast, combined with those that she is scheduled to make in the coming week, tell me the campaign knows what they're doing ; that they know what they have to do and they're doing it. I'll be doing my damndest in this last month to do more and worry less. Happy to be in the trenches with all of you. Remember "keep calm and campaign on". When it comes to MAGA, Corporate Media and bad actors, "Never let the bastards wear you down!"