Morning all, by all accounts Mikie Sherrill put in a very strong debate performance in New Jersey last night. Her quick report moments after the debate is above. Enjoy. I continue to be very impressed with the campaign’s social and paid media in these critical closing days of the campaign. Their ads have been tough and hard-hitting. Her joy, grit, and fight comes through in every post and video……
And yes the candidate herself is finding her stride and closing strong when it matters. Watch her terrific response from a Spanish language town hall meeting this week:
Abigail Spanberger debates her opponent tonight in Virginia. Here is the statement her campaign put out this morning previewing their main arguments:
“Tonight’s debate will make clear the contrast in this race — Abigail Spanberger is focused on solving the real challenges Virginia families face, while Winsome Earle-Sears has already shown that she will always put President Trump first.
“Virginians across the Commonwealth are echoing what Abigail has been saying all year — that Virginians want a Governor who is focused on making Virginia more affordable. That’s exactly why Abigail has laid out her plans to bring down housing, healthcare, and energy costs — and why she’ll get to work on Day One to get it done.
“Tonight, Virginians will also see that Winsome Earle-Sears doesn’t have the backbone to stand up to President Trump’s attacks on Virginia. Instead, Sears is going to lie about Abigail’s record and mislead Virginians about her own — but she won’t be able to cover up her steadfast support for President Trump as he drives up costs for families, threatens Virginians’ healthcare, and kills Virginia jobs.
“Unlike her opponent, Abigail will never put party or politics ahead of the people of Virginia. I’m glad that Virginians will have this opportunity to hear exactly how Abigail will put them first.”
Here’s Spanberger’s latest social video:
Please considering donating to or volunteering for these two great candidates and help them close strong! You can find links to help each candidate below.
And for those of you in NJ and VA (and anywhere else that has an election this November) vote as early as you can. For when you vote early your name comes off the GOTV rolls for the campaigns allowing them to move on to lower propensity voters. Voting early thus increases overall Dem turnout and makes it more likely we win. So please vote early and talk to everyone you know about joining you. Voting early makes more Democratic votes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Note that this is updated version of today’s post that was sent out prematurely to our paid subscribers this am. I am on the road today and producing Hopium while traveling can be tough some times! So enjoy this one all……
Dems Flip Fairbanks, Alaska - We flipped the city of Fairbanks Alaska on Tuesday night. Here’s a note I received from Jenny-Marie Stryker, the Executive Director of the Alaska Democratic Party last night:
WE DID IT – last night, right-wing, extremist Fairbanks City Mayor David Pruhs was unseated by the Presiding Officer of the FNSB, Mindy O’Neall, in the election for Fairbanks City Mayor. Pruhs conceded late last night and attested O’Neall’s victory to the efforts of the Alaska Democratic Party and local Democratic efforts.
And yes my friends, our investment in the Alaska Democratic Party these last few weeks helped contribute to encouraging win. Learn more about our Audacious Expansion Fund that includes investing in Alaska and watch our recent interview with Eric Croft, the very capable Alaska Dem Chair, here.
“Every Day Gets Better For Us” - Here’s a writeup of the current state of play in Congress by the influential morning DC insider pub, Punchbowl News - Schumer on the shutdown: ‘Every day gets better for us’ -
We interviewed Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer on Wednesday in his Capitol office, where the New York Democrat was as bullish as he’s ever been about his shutdown strategy.
“Every day gets better for us,” Schumer asserted.
“It’s because we’ve thought about this long in advance and we knew that health care would be the focal point on Sept. 30 and we prepared for it … Their whole theory was — threaten us, bamboozle us, and we would submit in a day or two.”
Schumer is right that he’s been able to block the clean CR for much longer than most Republicans — and many House Democrats — thought. After three Senate Democrats peeled off during the first day of floor votes, Schumer has stopped any further defections.
Some of this is because Trump isn’t fully dialed into the funding crisis. The president veered way off-message earlier this week when he said he wants an Obamacare deal without specifying that the government has to reopen first.
What Schumer is banking on is that Trump gets engaged at some point and wants to cut a deal on Obamacare subsidies to reopen the government.
There’s been no real sign of this yet, even as Schumer insists Republicans are “feeling the heat.” Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and many Trump aides remain confident they have the upper hand. Trump is essentially letting Johnson and Thune run the show.
Why Democrats feel good. Trump and top administration officials have threatened to enact mass layoffs, restructure federal agencies and cut benefits during a shutdown. They’ve done none of that up until now. We’ll see what happens at Trump’s Cabinet meeting today.
Trump and OMB Director Russ Vought did cut billions of dollars in federal energy and infrastructure projects in blue states. But that had the effect of stiffening Democrats’ spines.
“Every time they try something, it doesn’t quite work,” Schumer said. “Even the threat of shutting things — ‘We’re gonna close this, we’re gonna close that.’ It’s [reflecting] at least as negative on them as it is on us. I think more so on them.”
The Trump administration said it would try to use tariff revenue to bolster the Women, Infants and Children (WIC) nutrition program, which is in danger of running out of money this week. This would remove a key pain point for the shutdown and make Democrats feel more comfortable dragging it out.
House Democrats are drawing deeper lines in the sand, too. Both House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Massachusetts Rep. Richard Neal, the top Democrat on the Ways and Means Committee, said they could never accept a one-year extension of enhanced premium tax credits for Obamacare.
Jeffries’ declaration, however, puts Schumer in a tough spot. Schumer has pushed for a bipartisan negotiation, which means compromising on the Democrats’ demand of a permanent extension. When we pointed out to Schumer that he hasn’t drawn similar red lines, Schumer responded: “I don’t negotiate in public.”
Inside Schumer’s strategy. Since the shutdown, Schumer has lobbied the top echelon of the Democratic Party to rally to his cause. The New York Democrat has spoken with former President Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, among others.
Schumer, who caught major flak in March for helping Republicans fund the government, said he’s never had to recharge his signature flip phone more. And while the aforementioned Democrats are important, Schumer is much more concerned with his own caucus. That means trying to ensure he doesn’t repeat the mistakes from March or jeopardize his standing as Senate Democratic leader.
“We knew that this would be a hard fight. It is still a hard fight,” Schumer said, nodding to the pain of a shutdown. “But every day we’re getting better and better as the message sinks in more and more deeply.”
There are plenty of potential pitfalls with Schumer’s strategy. Schumer keeps saying an Obamacare deal can come together quickly — “in a day or two” — to end the shutdown. That assessment ignores the reality that this will be a very complicated, drawn-out negotiation given that wide swaths of Hill Republicans don’t want an Obamacare subsidy extension at all.
Schumer said he’s had zero contact with the Trump administration since the Big Four meeting last week.
But as this showdown drags on and polls show that the public blames the GOP, Trump may grow sick of this and conclude that failing to get a quick deal on Obamacare subsidies will hurt him politically. Here’s Schumer:
“Even the pain that’s caused — the data we have seen and just talking to people, they blame Trump. When things are actually shut down, they blame Trump. When things aren’t happening, they blame Trump. Because he’s in charge. You don’t need a political science PhD to understand they control everything.”
Rising tensions. Another reason Democrats feel the wind at their backs is that Republicans are a bit all over the place.
The House has been out of session now for 20 days. Endangered Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.) said Johnson “shouldn’t even think about canceling session for a third straight week.” Johnson will hold an 11:30 a.m. call this morning with House Republicans.
Keep working hard all, and be sure to read my latest take on this deeply consequential fight, The Reckoning For Trump’s Terrible Presidency Has Begun.
Greg Sargent On The Need For Dems To Challenge Trump’s Escalating Authoritarianism More Directly - Echoing some of our discussions of late, Greg Sargent has a must-read new essay in the New Republic, “Inside Stephen Miller’s To Normalize Trump’s Dictator Rule.” Two excerpts:
Stephen Miller has a theory about this political moment. As President Trump expands his lawbreaking and dictatorial rule, the powerful MAGA disinformation apparatus—at Miller’s direction—is supercharging public attention to the debate over Trump’s conduct in a way that’s designed to deeply polarize it. That will force Americans to take a side in that standoff, Miller clearly believes, driving them to embrace authoritarian rule, though perhaps without understanding it in exactly those terms.
Do Democratic leaders broadly have their own theory about this moment? It’s unclear. But here’s what we can divine right now: Governors JB Pritzker of Illinois and Gavin Newsom of California do have one. They grasp Miller’s theory of the case, and they are responding in kind, with their own war for attention, on the intuition that voters will side with the rule of law over authoritarian dictatorship—if they are presented with this as a clear choice.
And….
Pritzker and Newsom are now plainly motivated by an understanding like this one. Pritzker has plunged very deeply into the public argument over Trump’s troops in Chicago. In urgent moral language, he has told his state’s residents that Trump represents a dangerous threat to their way of life. Newsom has done the same. After Trump tried to dispatch California’s National Guard into Portland, Newsom warned: “America is on the brink of martial law.”
In short, Pritzker and Newsom see it as a defining challenge of this moment that Trump is consolidating authoritarian power daily, and using it to subjugate and dominate blue America as if it’s akin to an enemy nation within. And they are shaping their approach accordingly.
Miller plainly believes there’s a latent majority out in the country that can be sleepwalked into authoritarianism. If Democrats sit this debate out, Miller has calculated, Trump’s deceptions can flood public information spaces, persuading low-info, low-attention voters that his autocratic encroachments constitute a proportional response to the civic unrest he keeps propagandizing about.
What’s notable, in one sense, is how badly this project has failed. Despite months of effort, Trump and Miller have not come close to manufacturing the sense of fear or trauma out in the country they’d hoped for. But in the nascent Pritzker-Newsom understanding, assuming this will all take care of itself—that voters will resist Trump-Miller agitprop without prompting—is insufficient. We’ve learned, hearteningly, that majorities seem to harbor a deep attachment to liberal rights and liberties, one that instinctively recoils at masked kidnappings, at hypermilitarized vehicles on urban boulevards, at the trappings of totalitarian dictatorship. But this must be activated. That takes conflict and controversy—powerful imagery and language that rivets attention.
It’s not clear many Democrats understand this. Some Democrats have confided to reporters that they see this topic as a “trap” enticing them into a losing debate about crime. But why assume voters will automatically believe Trump’s occupations are actually about combating crime? This throws in the towel, right up front, on communicating to voters what this debate is really about: that Trump’s abuses should be utterly abhorrent to anyone who values living in a free society.
Do Democrats, broadly speaking, have a theory of this moment that’s consciously matched to MAGA’s authoritarian politics? They need one. Because guess who does have a theory of the moment? Miller does. And he’s amassing unprecedented power to put it into practice as we speak.
Here is Governor Pritzker’s Chief of Staff, Anne Caprara, on Bluesky, yesterday:
To hear from Governor Newsom directly on his theory of the case be sure to watch our new interview with him…..
Now, Let’s Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hopium paid subscribers gather tonight at 7pm ET. Register here and look forward to seeing folks!
I want to thank everyone who has given in recent days. We saw a big uptick in giving before the critical q3 filing deadline. Note that we’ve hit $200,000 raised now for our 7 House incumbents and Abigail Spanberger, and $100,000 for Mikie Sherrill. Thank you all!
Winning The Fall - Support Our November, 2025 Candidates and Yes On 50
Mikie Sherrill NJ Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $105k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my new interview with Rep. Sherrill | Read my new post about Sherrill’s sturdy polling lead | Sherrill leads by 8 in new Fox poll
Abigail Spanberger VA Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $208k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Abigail Spanberger
Yes on 50 (CA) - $50,000 goal - Donate | Learn more, volunteer | Sign Up For CA Dem Party Daily Phonebanks | Watch my new interview with Gov. Gavin Newsom
Hopium members in CA/NJ/PA/VA - please vote on Day 1, or as early as you can, either by mail or in-person. When you vote early your names comes off the campaign GOTV rolls allowing them to move on to lower propensity voters, which increases D turnout and makes it more likely we win. Voting early = another way to help us win.
Please vote early and encourage everyone you know to join you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Winning The Midterms - Support Our 2026 Candidates
Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $43,000 raised- Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Gov. Cooper
Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $81k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my inspiring new interview with Senator Ossoff
Hopium House 7 (2026) - $250,000 goal, $215k raised - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer | Watch My Interviews With Our Intrepid Incumbents
Expanding The Map - Support Our Audacious Expansion Fund (2026-2032)
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $250,000 goal, $51,000 raised - Join our new campaign to invest in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas | Donate To All Five State Parties | Watch my interviews with Alaska Chair Eric Croft, Florida Chair Nikki Fried, Iowa Chair Rita Hart and Texas Chair Kendall Scudder
Our updated fundraising goals are now for the end of the year, December 31st, except for the 2025 races, which are now for Election Day, 2025.
Defending America, Winning The Big Argument With Trump - We have two recommended actions today:
1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our our emerging four part agenda. Demand that your Senators and House Member work to keep the government open and
Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world
Defend our democracy, rule of law and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE, restore due process to our immigration system, defend the 1st Amendment, and end the use of the military on our streets and the unlawful occupation of our cities
Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; support and co-sponsor Rep. Haley Stevens’ effort to Impeach and remove Robert Kennedy
Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia and China
2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Be sure to check out our new discussion with Deborah Potter and Rachel Poliner who have passed resolutions in New Mexico and Boston, and offer advice on how to get a resolution passed in your own community.
Remarkably, members of this community have passed or are advancing 85 (!!!!) resolution projects in 23 states + DC. Can we get to all 50 states by the fall election?
Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Been impressive to see how many of you remain involved in local, in person protests of all kinds in your communities. Great to see!
Keep working hard all, and remember Hopium is hope with a plan. We don’t just hope tomorrow will be better than today. We do the work to make it so - Simon
