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Kamala Won, Polling Is Good, Trump Is Melting Down, Hard Work Is Good Work - My Latest Take On The 2024 Election (Video)

Been A Good Week Everyone/Early in person voting starts next Friday!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Happy Friday all. We’ve had a very good week. As I wrote to you on Tuesday the polling heading into the debate was encouraging. Yesterday we got five new polls taken entirely after the debate:

  • Harris 50 - Trump 45 (+5) Morning Consult

  • Harris 47 - Trump 42 (+5) Ipsos/Reuters

  • Harris 49 - Trump 45 (+4) YouGov/Times (likely voters)

  • Harris 50 - Trump 47 (+3) Leger/NYPost

  • Harris 48 - Trump 45 (+3) SoCal

This data suggests Harris has already gained a point or so coming out the debate. As national elections don’t usually move too quickly, we should be happy with this new data. It’s encouraging. We now have a 2-3-4 point lead in national polling. We are in a stronger position in the battlegrounds. We are leading in most Senate races outside of partisan lean, something that is going to be a bigger problem for Rs as we get closer to Election Day. We have meaningful financial, organization and enthusiasm advantages. We are filing arenas. We are working expand our coalition, grow our vote, take more stuff away from them. Taylor Swift is driving a voter reg surge. Republicans have been underperforming not overperforming public polls, including Trump this year, since Dobbs, as the fascists did in Europe and France. Our candidate is powerful, confident, inspiring and bringing it every day. Her agenda is speaking directly to the American people’s greatest concerns. She is a patriot, running on love of country, love of one another, freedom, helping folks not just get by, but get ahead. She is for the people.

Enjoy this joyful moment from Greensboro, North Carolina yesterday. It was the second event in North Carolina yesterday, and our VP filled the largest arena in the Tar Heel State. Our friend Anderson Clayton had a very good day yesterday!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Watch and share these three new ads from the Harris-Walz campaign. They are very, very good:

As the Vice President said Tuesday night:

Hard work is good work. And we are going to win

Trump is having a bad week, a really bad week. Our candidate kicked his ass without a teleprompter. Our campaign’s big play to force debates and let his ugliness be on display for all to see has finally worked. Trump 2024 is not Trump 2016 or Trump 2020. He is uglier, more extreme, deeply unwell and wildly untethered. He is now a rapist, fraudster, traitor and a 34 times felon. He has become dangerously impulsive, continues to make enormous mistakes (like picking JD Vance), and can no longer speak in public without doing enormous harm to his campaign. The thrill is gone. His party has splintered, and he is driving critical parts of his coalition away. The grumbling from GOP leaders is getting very loud. They know they are losing, that he is a loser and it’s going to get super nasty now.

To go deeper on this moment of profound promise, I have a few things for you:

  • My new presentation on the 2024 election, above. I recorded it Wednesday night with many of you.

  • Tom Bonier and I joined the MeidasTouch team yesterday for an extended sit down on the election. Think you will like this one.

  • The full new episode of this week’s Closing Strong is out. Tara had some great insights into the Vice President and the debate. We also have a new remarkable roundtable discussion on the deep penetration of the Republican Party by Putin. More on that this weekend.

Hard Work Is Good Work. And We Are Going TO Win! - Our community has been busting it’s ass on elections all across the country since I launched Hopium in March of last year, but our most important work is the work we are going to do now in these final two months. This section spells out my recommendations on where you can put your time and money, and of course you are free to volunteer and donate beyond what we are doing here. We are still a start up here at Hopium, and while we are now more than 110,000 proud patriots, I want to remain narrow and focused on the places where I think your money and time can make the biggest difference. That’s why we’ve focused on non-incumbent open seat and challengers races and the Presidential race of course.

I am particularly excited about new Thursday night calling and postcarding events for the House candidates most likely to turn red seats to blue ones and flip the House this November. We’ve had great turnout, we get a lot of work done and have lots of fun. Join us! It’s where the cool kids spend their Thursday nights!!!!!!

In the coming days, as we get in more data about our new electoral landscape, I will be updating my recommendations. For background, here’s my post on the strategy behind our candidate and state party endorsements, including our Presidential battleground “check” and “checkmate” strategy. Sign up to call or postcard for Rudy Salas (CA-22) at our next Winning The House Thursday. These events have been well-attended and fun - join us if you can!

Contribute, volunteer and win with the Hopium community today:

Here are ways you can do even more:

  • Commit to Vote on Day 1 and get everyone you know to join you. Early voting begins in three states on September 20th - just 7 days away!

  • Watch my With Dems presentation on the greatness and goodness of the Democratic Party and this six minute video on the incredible stakes in this election.

  • Help grow the Hopium community. Use this link to encourage others sign others up. You can gift a subscription to a friend or student here and get group rates too. From now until Election Day a paid annual Hopium subscription is 10% off. If you have changed credit cards or moved you can update your payment information or check your renewal status by following these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep our community growing and the Hopium flowing! Paid subscribers help keep most of our content free for the 110,000 strong in our community down the home stretch!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon

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Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg
Hopium Chronicles With Simon Rosenberg Podcast
Expert commentary from a 30 year veteran of US politics. Here we'll be working on strategies to defeat MAGA, tell our story more effectively and ensure freedom and democracy prevail. Expect sharp analysis, live events and all sorts of Hopium!