Happy Monday all. The video above is me talking to Jonathan Capehart late last week on all the good polling we’ve been seeing, a trend which continued over the weekend with very strong NBC and CBS polls. We are in the midst of a very strong stretch for Harris and the Dems - good polling, meaningful financial/organizational/enthusiasm advantages, big debate win, half point interest rate cut and other encouraging economics news, a great night with Oprah and other guests, and a candidate who is just bringing it, getting it done and inspiring everyday.
Yes, there is new NYT polling this morning with good data for Trump in AZ, GA, NC, but I want to be very clear - the NYT has been running 3-4 points more Republican than other pollsters of late, and there are at least three big problems with their data:
These polls show a 10 point swing to Trump in AZ and a 4 point swing to Trump in NC. Almost every other poll taken in the last few weeks shows Harris gaining ground, not falling behind. And a 10 point swing - come on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Last week the NYT found Harris up 4 in PA, this week down 5 in AZ. These two states had the same results in 2020 - small wins for Biden. But they 9 are points apart now? Please.
In its new round of battleground polls somehow the NYT failed to poll the states where we have been performing best in the blue wall - MI, WI - and in the sunbelt - NV. Choosing those 4 states of the 7 battlegrounds was something……..
The NYT poll is just one poll among many, and should not dictate our understanding of the race or current trends, nor am I going to any more spend dissecting this new data. I and we have better things to do. We have an election to go win.
I stand by the insights in my video above and in my post yesterday. At its core what the NYT has told us that that while we are doing well in PA (and by extension MI, WI) we still have a fight on our hands to get to 270. Well, my friends, that is what we always believed would be the case, and why we’ve chosen our “checkmate” investments in AZ, NC and NE-2. We are winning this election but have not won it yet and have lots of work to do to get it where we want it to be.
Here’s a reminder of what the new NBC News poll found yesterday:
What Morning Consult found last week:
Here’s how CBS sees it:
And we got a great new poll in Wisconsin this morning:
Heads down, keep working peeps. For more on the 2024 election be sure to check out:
My new video presentation on the 2024 election, “Leading In The Polls, Beating Inflation, An Inspiring Ticket - The Democratic Party Enters The Home Stretch Strong, Confident, Ready To Win.” You will also find some fresh written analysis here too.
Our new “Closing Strong” episode has 3 segments: 1) Tara and I talking about the current moment as we do each week 2) Rep. Maxwell Frost on the youth vote and 3) Esosa Osa on Russian disinformation targeting the black community here in the US. It was a very good episode. Hope you will check it out!
Two new video pods: 1) I joined Jen Rubin of the Washington Post last week to talk about the 2024 election, the decline of the GOP and much more 2) On Thursday Tom Bonier and I did a sit down with Ben Meiselas on the mighty MeidasTouch Network to talk polls and why we remain so optimistic
GOP Meltdown Watch - Meanwhile, the epic meltdown of the North Carolina Republican Party continued yesterday, as the entire senior campaign team for Mark Robinson quit:
As we discussed yesterday, the collapse of the campaign of the most powerful statewide elected Republican and close ally of Trump in a must win state is a very big development in the 2024 election, and a very bad one for the rapist, fraudster, traitor and 34 times felon.
We also got this story from the AP, “Republicans in swing states see scant signs of groups door-knocking for Trump:”
LANSING, Mich. (AP) — Republican activists in swing states say they have seen little sign of the teams tasked with knocking on doors and turning out infrequent voters on behalf of Donald Trump, raising concerns about the party’s presidential nominee relying on outside groups for an important part of his campaign operations.
Trump and the Republican National Committee he controls opted to share get-out-the-vote duties in key parts of the most competitive states this year with groups such as America PAC, the organization supported by billionaire Elon Musk.
It is difficult to demonstrate that something is not happening. But with fewer than 50 days until the Nov. 5 election, dozens of Republican officials, activists and operatives in Michigan, North Carolina and other battleground states say they have rarely or never witnessed the group’s canvassers. In Arizona and Nevada, the Musk-backed political action committee replaced its door-knocking company just this past week.
“I haven’t seen anybody,” said Nate Wilkowski, field director for the Republican Party in vote-rich Oakland County, Michigan, which includes crucial Detroit suburbs. He was speaking specifically of America PAC. “Nobody’s given me a heads-up that they’re around in Oakland County areas.”
Voting on Day 1 and Winning It In October - Early voting has begun across the country, and we are now in the beginning of “voting season.” On Friday I spoke with Katherine White of our good friends at Network NOVA about their efforts to drive the early vote in Virginia and winning the early vote and shooting to win the election in October. For folks looking for ideas about how to organize around Vote on Day 1/early voting in your states I recommend watching a recording of our talk below. While this is their entire weekly Power Lunch show our conversation is the first 20 minutes or so. It is well worth your time if you are looking for a greater understanding of the importance of Voting on Day 1 and winning the early vote, and it was a lot of fun!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Our Friends at Markers for Democracy are having their big 24 hour postcarding push starting tonight at 730pm ET. To register or learn more visit here. Tom Bonier and I will be speaking to them tomorrow morning at 1030am. Nancy Pelosi kicks it off tonight. Get your markers ready everyone and have some fun with this amazing organization this week!
Hopium On The Loose Tomorrow Night in DC - Tomorrow night I will be out and about in DC and invite folks to join me:
COURIER Newsroom’s From Vibes To Votes - 6th and I Synagogue, 600 I Street, NW. Our friend Tara McGowan is hosting a great event with Nancy Pelosi and others. I am speaking on a panel looking at the 2024 election with my good friend Tom Bonier moderated by CNN commentator Maria Cardona. This will be the first time Tom and I will be together live in DC this year. Hard to believe! The event starts at 530pm ET and our panel begins at 6pm. You can register, get more info and live stream info here. The event is free and there are still some seats remaining. I will be getting to the event at 5pm for anyone who wants to connect in person.
Fundraiser For The North Carolina Democratic Party And Anderson Clayton! - From Tara’s event I will be heading over to an event nearby for Anderson Clayton and the North Carolina Democratic Party. Come hang out with me, Anderson and a whole lot of good people. Tickets start at $100 and $35 for young professionals. Sign up and get more info here.
Hard Work Is Good Work/Winning It In October - September is the last major filing deadline for campaigns across the country so this next week really matters my friends. Whatever you got left in your pocket try to give it before midnight on September 30th. Money now is better than money in late October for all these races. Do what you can, and I will note that this community has really stepped up in recent days. We are moving a lot of money into these races and state parties - thank you all!
Harris-Walz For President - $1,061,000 raised, $1.5m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel.
Our Presidential Checkmate States - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these two frontline state parties:
North Carolina - $513,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton. We have hit $500,000 everyone. So amazing. Thank you all!
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $375,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego
Nebraska/Blue Dot - $187,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb. Nebraska has become very important to us this year - please consider donating today!
Winning The House - There are four ways to support our 15 Winning The House candidates:
Support All 15 With A Single Donation - $1,159,000 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer, Learn More and Watch Interviews With Our Candidates
Support The New 4 - $36,245 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More. This is amazing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Donate Directly To A Candidate - You can donate to any of our 15 candidates directly here. Let’s do this people!
Sign up to postcard and call into these critical swing districts in our Hopium Winning The House Thursday series. This week we are working for Rudy Salas (CA-22). We start at 730pm ET and go to 9pm. Register here. Each week in addition to the work we usually hear from the candidate we are working for and I close with a 10 minute update on the election. Join us - it’s where all cool kids are on Thursday nights!
Keeping The Senate Blue - By popular demand, we are now supporting Senators Tester and Brown in addition to Ruben Gallego:
Montana/Jon Tester - $39,036 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Ohio/Sherrod Brown - $22,450 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $375,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego
Ways you can do even more:
Commit to Vote on Day 1 and get everyone you know to join you. Early voting has now begun in MN, SC, SD, PA and VA!
Promote I Will Vote to help people check their registration status and register to vote. There are many weeks of voter registration left. Let’s keep making more Democrats!
Watch my With Dems presentation on the greatness and goodness of the Democratic Party and this six minute video on the incredible stakes in this election.
Grow and Strengthen The Hopium Community - Help grow the Hopium community. Use this link to encourage others sign others up. You can gift a subscription to a friend or student here and get group rates too. From now until Election Day a paid annual Hopium subscription is 10% off. If you have changed credit cards or moved you can update your payment information or check your renewal status by following these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep our community growing and the Hopium flowing! Paid subscribers help keep most of our content free for the 115,000 strong in our community down the home stretch!
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you! - Simon
Winning It In October, NC GOP Keeps Melting Down, Doing More and Worrying Less