Playback speed
×
Share post
Share post at current time
0:00
/
0:00
Transcript
258

Harris Up In New NBC/CBS Polls, Maxwell Frost On Young Voters, Getting To 270, Working From Joy and Closing Strong

For those in the DC area I am doing events with Tom Bonier and Anderson Clayton Tuesday night - come join us!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
258

Happy Sunday all. We are having another good week. The VP and her campaign keep bringing it everyday. Trump and Vance keep melting down. Here’s Politico’s write up on the new August fundraising reports. Harris outraised Trump by 4 to 1 last month!!!!!!

Kamala Harris’ campaign spent nearly three times as much as Donald Trump’s did in August — but raised so much that she still grew her cash advantage.

The massive spending disparity came even as the Trump campaign continued to scale up its expenses, which more than doubled from the month prior, according to a POLITICO analysis of campaign finance filings submitted to the Federal Election Commission late Friday. But the continued divergence highlights the Harris campaign’s significant money and infrastructure advantage as the election approaches: Harris has far more campaign cash available than Trump, and she has greater means to deploy it.

Harris entered August with more money than Trump, and managed to raise more than she spent over the month. Trump’s campaign, by contrast, spent more than it raised despite far fewer expenses. Her campaign reported taking in $190 million; his, just shy of $45 million.

The vice president’s campaign outspent Trump $174 million to $61 million in August. But Harris’ preexisting cash advantage and superior fundraising mean that she ended the month with $235 million, $100 million more than Trump.

Yes, we enter voting season with our candidates much better liked; a lead in the national and battleground state polls; they are having “bad candidate” problems again in the battlegrounds; and we have meaningful financial, organizational (all of you), enthusiasm and rowdy crowd size advantages. We lead now and have a much greater capacity to “close strong” and keep pushing the election our way.

As I wrote on Thursday, we’ve had a very good run of polls since the Vice President’s very strong debate performance last week. We got two new encouraging polls this morning. We’ll start with this one from NBC News, which had this lovely headline:

In this poll Harris is up 49%-44% (+5) in the two way head to head with Trump, and 6, 47%-41%, in the full field including all the candidates. Continuing the trend I wrote about on Wednesday, the favs/unfavs of Harris and Walz continue to be in very elevated territory. It turns out that bringing the joy has been a very effective political strategy:

  • Walz: 40-33 (net: +7) • Harris: 48-45 (+3)

  • Trump: 40-53 (-13) • Vance: 32-45 (-13)

A new CBS News poll also has Harris up by 4 nationally, 52%-48% and by 2 in the battlegrounds.

Voting has begun. People are checking into the election now, and what they see is our popular ticket and their ugliness. Which is why if you are going to donate or volunteer do it now. Do not wait until late October or November. We need to press our advantage, reach as many as voters as we can right now at a time when folks are open to hearing from us. With early voting underway in five states now, and many more very soon, our goal, together, should be to take these good vibes and enthusiasm and turn them into votes, run up the score in the early vote (Vote on Day 1!) and win this thing in October.

It was so great to see how many of you voted on Day 1 already. The Hopium chat has been full of reports exciting reports from the states where voting has already begun. We are off to a great start people! Hopium community member Darcy McKensie at a “Voted on Day 1” party at her Minnesota home on Friday night. Keep working it everyone!

Hopium On The Loose Tuesday Night in DC - On Tuesday night I will be out and about in DC and invite folks to join me:

  • COURIER Newsroom’s From Vibes To Votes - 6th and I Synagogue, 600 I Street, NW. Our friend Tara McGowan is hosting a great event with Nancy Pelosi and others. I am speaking on a panel looking at the 2024 election with my good friend Tom Bonier moderated by CNN commentator Maria Cardona. This will be the first time Tom and I will be together live in DC this year. Hard to believe! The event starts at 530pm ET and our panel begins at 6pm. You can register, get more info and live stream info here. The event is free and there are still some seats remaining. I will be getting to the event at 5pm for anyone who wants to connect in person.

  • Fundraiser For The North Carolina Democratic Party And Anderson Clayton! - From Tara’s event I will be heading over to an event nearby for Anderson Clayton and the North Carolina Democratic Party. Come hang out with me, Anderson and a whole lot of good people. Tickets start at $100 and $35 for young professionals. Sign up and get more info here.

Come to one or both events. Excited to be able to see some of the DC-based Hopium community in person!

Closing Strong Interview With Maxwell Frost - Today’s lead video is a segment from our new Closing Strong video series. In this one Tara and I talk to Rep. Maxwell Frost about the youth vote and what he is seeing on the trail as one of the most high profile surrogates for the Harris-Walz campaign. He is an inspiring young leader and I think you will enjoy our conversation. You can watch the full episode here. In addition to our conversation with Rep. Frost Tara and I discuss the news of the week and talk to Esosa Osa about her successful efforts to expose a Russian disinformation operation targeting the Black community here in the US. Enjoy folks. This Closing Strong series has been a lot of fun and I am proud of the quality of the information we are able to provide to all of you.

A few more things to check out, watch and chew on this weekend:

  • My new video presentation on the 2024 election, “Leading In The Polls, Beating Inflation, An Inspiring Ticket - The Democratic Party Enters The Home Stretch Strong, Confident, Ready To Win.” You will also find some fresh written analysis here too.

  • In the last few days I joined Jen Rubin of the Washington Post to talk about all this encouraging news, and on Thursday Tom Bonier and I did a sit down with Ben Meiselas on the mighty MeidasTouch Network to talk polls and so much more. Enjoy my friends. Both are great conversations.

Getting To 270, Our Checkmate Strategy - A new Politico story reports that Republicans now believe they have one (and maybe only one) path to victory - winning GA, NC and PA. I want to talk now about what this means for us here at Hopium in the home stretch.

If you head over to 538 you will notice that every public independent/not-GOP poll taken over the past few weeks has Harris tied or ahead in both NC and PA. Trump is doing a bit better in GA, but the latest poll there by a Republican-aligned group, American Greatness, has her ahead by 3 points among registered voters. So, to be clear, the polling in these three must win states for Trump is not good for him and the Republicans.

It has long been my view that given our strengths in MI, PA and WI we were likely to win all three, which would get us 269 Electoral College votes. The battle to me was always tipping that next state/district from what was left - AZ, GA, NC, NV and NE-2. This year we’ve focused on tipping three of those states/districts - AZ, NC and NE-2. Arizona and North Carolina because I felt the extremists at the top of the tickets in both, Kari Lake and Mark Robinson, meant more was possible for us in each state this year and that with investment we were likely to win. And NE-2 because Biden won it last time, we have a great state party chair there, and our dollars go a long way in a state that is often overlooked at the Presidential level.

So this year we’ve put our heads down and gone to work for these three tipping point opportunities. Many of you have volunteered. Many of you have donated. Many are traveling to these states for the final weeks of the election. We’ve heard from Ruben Gallego, Jane Kleeb and Anderson Clayton. I’ve traveled to both AZ and NC to support fundraisers there. And in the last few days we’ve surpassed what I thought were stretch goals of $175,000 for the Nebraska Party and $500,000 (!!!!!!) for Anderson Clayton and the NC Dems. It’s remarkable everyone - thank you.

So let us be very clear about one thing - if we win these three states it is almost certain we win the election. Which is why I am making a renewed push for all of you to support our work in these three states. I’ve set new ambitious fundraising goals - $750,000 for North Carolina, $500,000 for Arizona and $250,000 for Nebraska. With the epic Mark Robinson scandal this week our chances of winning North Carolina have increased and there is no map for Trump if he loses the Tar Heel state, a state he won in 2020. Listen to this clip of Trump from his rally in Wilmington, North Carolina yesterday where he rags on the RNC Chair Michael Whatley, who was the Chair of the NC GOP, and talks about the possibility of losing North Carolina. Losing there is clearly on his diseased mind right now my friends:

I talked to Jane Kleeb the NE Dem Party Chair on Friday and she had two messages for the Hopium community: 1) she thinks the blue dot will remain as it is, and the state will not become winner take all 2) giving to the NE Dem Party as we’ve been doing not only helps us win the blue dot and flip the NE-2 House seat, but it helps us defeat all Republicans in the state, including the Senate incumbent, Deborah Fischer. In such a small state your donation goes very far here, and does three things simultaneously - helps us win the blue dot, win NE-02, and beat a Republican Senator. Lots of bang for your buck with the NE Dems right now!

If you want to help us get to 270 by flipping AZ, NC and NE-2 follow the links below. If you click here you can see recent videos of Jane Kleeb and Anderson Clayton thanking the Hopium community for all that we’ve done for them.

We can do this people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hard Work Is Good Work/Winning The Election In October - Let’s get to work:

Harris-Walz For President - $1,058,000 raised, $1.5m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel.

Our Presidential Checkmate States - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these two frontline state parties:

  • North Carolina - $502,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton. We have hit $500,000 everyone. So amazing. Thank you all!

  • Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $366,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego

  • Nebraska/Blue Dot - $174,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb. Nebraska has become very important to us this year - please consider donating today!

Winning The House - There are four ways to support our 15 Winning The House candidates:

  • Support All 15 With A Single Donation - $1,131,000 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer, Learn More and Watch Interviews With Our Candidates

  • Support The New 4 - $31,245 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More. This is amazing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Donate Directly To A Candidate - You can donate to any of our 15 candidates directly here. Let’s do this people!

  • Sign up to postcard and call into these critical swing districts in our Hopium Winning The House Thursday series. This week we are working for Rudy Salas (CA-22). We start at 730pm ET and go to 9pm. Register here. Each week in addition to the work we usually hear from the candidate we are working for and I close with a 10 minute update on the election. Join us - it’s where all cool kids are on Thursday nights!

Keeping The Senate Blue - By popular demand, we are now supporting Senators Tester and Brown in addition to Ruben Gallego:

Ways you can do even more:

  • Commit to Vote on Day 1 and get everyone you know to join you. Early voting has now begun in MN, SC, SD, PA and VA!

  • Promote I Will Vote to help people check their registration status and register to vote. There are many weeks of voter registration left. Let’s keep making more Democrats!

  • Watch my With Dems presentation on the greatness and goodness of the Democratic Party and this six minute video on the incredible stakes in this election.

Grow and Strengthen The Hopium Community - Help grow the Hopium community. Use this link to encourage others sign others up. You can gift a subscription to a friend or student here and get group rates too. From now until Election Day a paid annual Hopium subscription is 10% off. If you have changed credit cards or moved you can update your payment information or check your renewal status by following these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep our community growing and the Hopium flowing! Paid subscribers help keep most of our content free for the 115,000 strong in our community down the home stretch!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you! - Simon

Leave a comment

Share

Discussion about this podcast

Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg
Hopium Chronicles With Simon Rosenberg Podcast
Expert commentary from a 30 year veteran of US politics. Here we'll be working on strategies to defeat MAGA, tell our story more effectively and ensure freedom and democracy prevail. Expect sharp analysis, live events and all sorts of Hopium!