Morning all. Overnight the Nobel Committee awarded its Peace Prize to Marina Corina Machado (NYT gift link), the leader of the opposition movement in Venezuela, “for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy.”
The Committee went on to say: “Ms. Machado is receiving the Nobel Peace Prize first and foremost for her efforts to advance democracy in Venezuela. But democracy is also in retreat internationally. Democracy – understood as the right to freely express one’s opinion, to cast one’s vote and to be represented in elective government – is the foundation of peace both within countries and between countries.”
The Chairman of the Nobel Committee, Watne Frydnes, said this: “In the past year, Ms. Machado has been forced to live in hiding. Despite serious threats against her life, she has remained in the country, a choice that has inspired millions. When authoritarians seize power, it is crucial to recognize courageous defenders of freedom who rise and resist.”
Here is the moment the Nobel Committee called to inform her of the award, just a few hours ago. Please watch. It’s incredibly moving and inspiring.
Our friend Leon Krauze will be joining us live at Noon ET to talk about the Nobel Committee’s announcement. Leon interviewed Corina Machado late last year, and will reflect on the significance of the award for the people of Venezuela and the Americas, including the United States.
You can join our conversation by clicking on this link a few minutes before noon.
I shared AG Letitia James’ powerful response to Trump’s lawlessness last night. If you haven’t watched yet it is a great way to start your day.
Last night a federal judge temporarily blocked Trump’s ridiculous National Guard deployment in Illinois:
A federal judge in Illinois issued a temporary restraining order on Thursday evening blocking the Trump administration’s deployment of National Guard troops in the Chicago area, days after the president called up soldiers over the Democratic governor’s objection.
The judge, April M. Perry, a Biden appointee, said in court that “I have seen no credible evidence that there is a danger of a rebellion in the state of Illinois,” rejecting one of the administration’s stated reasons for the deployment.
While it is unclear what it means for the Guard already there this was an important win for Governor Pritzker and those fighting Trump’s escalating authoritarianism. As was a new statement by Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt condemning Trump’s Guard deployment:
Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt condemned the deployment of National Guard troops across state lines, a rare note of Republican criticism for the Trump administration’s aggressive use of military troops in American cities.
Stitt, who chairs the bipartisan National Governors Association, said that while he supports President Donald Trump’s crackdown on crime, he thought the deployment of Texas National Guard troops to Illinois violated the idea of states’ rights.
“Oklahomans would lose their mind if [Gov. JB] Pritzker in Illinois sent troops down to Oklahoma during the Biden administration,” Stitt told The New York Times in an interview.
He added that he was “surprised” by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s decision to send his troops across state lines, pointing to his cooperation with Abbott in challenging the Biden administration’s Covid policies “when the shoe was on the other foot.”
The Washington Post reports this morning on the growing frustration of judges across the US:
In recent days, a Trump-appointed judge in Oregon declared the president’s decision to send the National Guard to Portland was “simply untethered to the facts.”
In Tennessee, an Obama-appointed judge ruled that Kilmar Abrego García had presented enough evidence to pursue a rare claim of “vindictive prosecution.” On Thursday, Judge April M. Perry in Chicago, appointed by President Joe Biden, said she had seen a “lack of credibility” from the Department of Homeland Security.
Affidavits from the agency’s officials, “point to the arrest of people who did not actually commit a crime. That undercuts the persuasive value of your argument,” she told attorneys for the administration.
As those admonishments have rained down from federal judges, White House officials have responded with increasingly fervid rhetoric. In response to the Portland ruling, which blocked President Donald Trump from deploying the National Guard in the city, the president’s top domestic policy aide, Stephen Miller, went on social media to accuse Judge Karin J. Immergut of engaging in a “legal insurrection.”
Watch this video of a young Chicago mom being violently detained as she was arriving at school to pick up her child:
Watch this incredible new video from Portland. Ridicule and mockery is a very important tool in our fight:
A new poll in Texas shows close, competitive Senate primaries in both parties. On the GOP side it is 34% Paxton, 33% Cornyn, , 22% Hunt. On the Democratic side it’s 46% Allred and 42% Talarico. Note, however, how much the landscape has changed in Texas since last November. From Trump +13 to Trump +4:
And this:
While Trump’s advantage over Harris among these Latino voters in 2024 was 8 percentage points (53% to 45%), if these Latino voters could vote again for president, Harris would lead Trump by 11 percentage points among Latinos (52% to 41%), marking a 19 percentage point shift. This finding suggests that any modeling of Latino voter behavior based on Trump’s unprecedented success with Texas Latino voters in 2024 could be significantly overestimating the 2026 Latino vote intention for Republican congressional candidates in the recently redrawn Texas U.S. House districts. And, as a result, Republicans may have a more difficult time than expected defeating Democratic incumbents Henry Cuellar in the 28th Congressional District and Vicente Gonzalez in the 34th Congressional District, while also suggesting that Republican victories in the 9th, 15th, and 35th Congressional Districts, though still the most likely outcome, are not nearly as certain as they would be if Latino voters cast ballots for Republican candidates in 2026 in the same way that they did back in 2024.
Every head to head match up between one of the Republicans and one of the Democrats in the Senate race showed only modest single digit leads for the Republican candidates. The bottom line - as of now Texas appears to be far more competitive state than one would have believed even a few months ago, and we may be having many more competitive House races than Trump and Mike Johnson bet on when they moved to steal those 5 seats.
Democrats Are Winning The Big Arguments With Trump, And Need To Keep Fighting (New Video and Analysis) - I got together last night with the proud, plucky patriots of the Hopium community our weekly check in. You can find a recording and transcript, above. A few notes from my talk:
1 - Trump had another bad week of polling. Here’s Trump’s job approval with changes from the last poll.
Ipsos/Reuters 40%-58% (-18) - 1 point drop
Economist/YouGov 39%-56% (-17) - 3 point drop
CBS 42%-58% (-16) - 4 point drop
Civiqs 41%-55% (-14) - 2 point drop this week
In all polling since the shutdown began more American blame the GOP than Dems; a majority rejects Trump’s invasion of American cities; and large majorities want the ACA subsidies restored. Trump is now regularly polling in the 20s and 30s on the big issues of the day, signaling that he has lost the power to rally the country, and even many of his own voters, around his agenda. He is a very weakened public figure, and is unlikely to win the coming debates and arguments around the budget and his agenda more broadly.
Pew published this data this week. Again, everything in the 30s:
2 - We are now having the big fight with Trump we all wanted to have, and now we need to win it. So far given the polling, it is clear Democrats made the right call to challenge Trump, and begin the necessary process of making him and the Republicans take responsibility for the extraordinary harm they are doing to the country. As we go forward into this debate I believe we can strengthen our argument against Trump by also talking about rising costs/tariffs and Trump’s escalating authoritarianism - his abuses of his power, his unprecedented corruption, his trampling of our rights and liberties, the targeting and prosecution of his political opponents.
I was encouraged last night by the response of our leaders to the outrageous indictment of AG Letitia James, particularly Schumer’s “this is what tryanny looks like” line. Together we must keep encouraging our leaders to find that higher gear.
As he declines, and the clear harms of his Presidency - including his shutting of the government and refusal to negotiate - become impossible to ignore, can Trump keep his incredibly narrow majorities in Congress together? He is set to lose the House Epstein vote when they return. Marjorie Taylor Greene has broken on health care, the shutdown and perhaps more. Governor Stitt has broken on the Guard deployment. Trump can only afford to lose 3-4 votes on any issue, and I think it is becoming increasingly difficult for Congressional Republicans to defend the indefensible. 3-4 Republicans in each chamber banding with Democrats could start to force a course correction for Trump. It may begin with restoring the ACA cuts; and if we are successful we can also fight to roll back the tariffs; block the coming ICE expansion (and perhaps more), and side with our allies in Europe against Putin.
3 - We are in strong positions right now for the fall elections, continuing the trend we’ve seen of strong electoral performances throughout the country this year. If we keep working hard we can and should have a good November.
Now, Let’s Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!
I want to thank everyone who has given in recent days. We saw a big uptick in giving before the critical q3 filing deadline. Note that we’ve hit $200,000 raised now for our 7 House incumbents and Abigail Spanberger, and $100,000 for Mikie Sherrill. Thank you all!
Winning The Fall - Support Our November, 2025 Candidates and Yes On 50
Mikie Sherrill NJ Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $107k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my new interview with Rep. Sherrill | Read my new post about Sherrill’s sturdy polling lead | Sherrill leads by 8 in new Fox poll
Abigail Spanberger VA Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $209k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Abigail Spanberger
Yes on 50 (CA) - $50,000 goal - Donate | Learn more, volunteer | Sign Up For CA Dem Party Daily Phonebanks | Watch my new interview with Gov. Gavin Newsom
Hopium members in CA/NJ/PA/VA - please vote on Day 1, or as early as you can, either by mail or in-person. When you vote early your names comes off the campaign GOTV rolls allowing them to move on to lower propensity voters, which increases D turnout and makes it more likely we win. Voting early = another way to help us win.
Please vote early and encourage everyone you know to join you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Winning The Midterms - Support Our 2026 Candidates
Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $43,000 raised- Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Gov. Cooper
Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $81k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my inspiring new interview with Senator Ossoff
Hopium House 7 (2026) - $250,000 goal, $215k raised - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer | Watch My Interviews With Our Intrepid Incumbents
Expanding The Map - Support Our Audacious Expansion Fund (2026-2032)
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $250,000 goal, $51,000 raised - Join our new campaign to invest in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas | Donate To All Five State Parties | Watch my interviews with Alaska Chair Eric Croft, Florida Chair Nikki Fried, Iowa Chair Rita Hart and Texas Chair Kendall Scudder
Our updated fundraising goals are now for the end of the year, December 31st, except for the 2025 races, which are now for Election Day, 2025.
Defending America, Winning The Big Argument With Trump - We have two recommended actions today:
1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our our emerging four part agenda. Demand that your Senators and House Member work to keep the government open and
Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world
Defend our democracy, rule of law and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE, restore due process to our immigration system, defend the 1st Amendment, and end the use of the military on our streets and the unlawful occupation of our cities
Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; support and co-sponsor Rep. Haley Stevens’ effort to Impeach and remove Robert Kennedy
Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia and China
2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Be sure to check out our new discussion with Deborah Potter and Rachel Poliner who have passed resolutions in New Mexico and Boston, and offer advice on how to get a resolution passed in your own community.
Remarkably, members of this community have passed or are advancing 85 (!!!!) resolution projects in 23 states + DC. Can we get to all 50 states by the fall election?
Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Been impressive to see how many of you remain involved in local, in person protests of all kinds in your communities. Great to see!
Keep working hard all, and remember Hopium is hope with a plan. We don’t just hope tomorrow will be better than today. We do the work to make it so - Simon
